XRP is below the common purchase price of the past yr, putting many holders within the red and increasing downside risk within the short term.
Reflecting a 50% crash scenario from 2022, XRP (XRP) experienced its strongest weekly selloff since October 2025.
Key insights:
New XRP buyers are within the red
On Monday, XRP was trading at around $1.60, down greater than 20% over the past week and well below the fee basis of buyers over the past 12 months.
XRP realized price by age. Source: Glassnode
It is now just above its aggregate realized price near $1.48, which reflects the common cost basis of all XRP in circulation. This implies that a big portion of recent XRP buyers are underwater.
A decisive break below $1.48 would mean the common holder shall be underwater, a scenario very near the bear phase in 2022, which ultimately ended with a 50% decline to around $0.30.
Additionally, XRP's 90-day whale flow stays net negative as large holders money out as an alternative of accumulating, data from CryptoQuant shows.
XRP Whale Flow 90-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant
If recent buyers are already underwater, continued whale selling could increase overhead supply and weaken any attempts at recovery.
Stablecoin outflows increase XRP’s downside risk
Furthermore, stablecoin inflows into exchanges turned significantly negative at the top of 2025, with 30-day net outflows reaching roughly $9.6 billion.
Exchange stablecoin net flows (30-day change). Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost
According to data from Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, outflows eased in January but net inflows remained negative at around $4 billion.
Fewer stablecoins on exchanges reduce buying pressure and make it harder for XRP to rise above the realized price.
The XRP price is in peril of crashing by one other 50%
Price charts show that XRP has held above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA; the purple line) at around $1.43, near the mixture realized price of $1.48.
XRP/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView
But while XRP could still slide into the $1.43-$1.48 support range in February, its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals.
XRP/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView
In any case, XRP could spend weeks establishing itself before aiming for a stronger recovery by the top of the primary or second quarter of 2026 if the RSI stays around 38 because it has throughout history.
Conversely, a decisive break below XRP's 100-2W EMA is prone to derail the scenario of a possible recovery.
In this case, XRP risks sliding towards its 200-2W EMA (the blue line) near $1 as early as March, mirroring the breakdown that followed similar losses of support in 2022.
A drop to $1 would put XRP around 36% below current levels.
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