XRP (XRP) is preparing for what technical analysts are calling a “mega breakout” after forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern. Meanwhile, there could also be just the macroeconomic catalyst it's been waiting for: the upcoming end of the U.S. Treasury shutdown, which could unencumber stalled liquidity.
$XRP mega breakout is imminent pic.twitter.com/M4jpLNqgRA
– Mikybull 🐂Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) November 11, 2025
Cup and Handle Pattern Notes in 100% XRP Rally
On its 3-day and weekly charts, XRP has carved out a textbook grip and hold: a rounded base (the “cup”) followed by a smaller consolidation (the “handle”) that has formed under key resistance over the past few weeks.
Three-day XRP/USDT price chart. Source: TradingView
The token needs to interrupt resistance within the $3.30-$3.40 range to substantiate the breakout. If it occurs during increasing volume, the XRP price could move towards the cluster of measured movement targets within the $4-$5 range (and even higher), leading to a gain of greater than 100% from current levels by the tip of 2025.
The pattern suggests that accumulation is going on and a powerful uptrend is imminent.
The US government shutdown is coming to an end: And it could prove positive for risk assets
XRP's bullish technical backdrop has turn out to be more favorable: the federal government shutdown within the US has caused the Treasury Department's General Account (TGA) to surge, effectively draining liquidity from your entire economic system.
US liquidity is tight as TGA rises to $965 billion, EIA rises and bank reserves fall into the “abundant” lower range, boosting SRF usage. But relief is at hand: the post-month-end RRP decline, closure resolution, and QT end on December 1 should turn liquidity right into a tailwind, fueling XRP's next rise together with the broader crypto market.
Chart of U.S. Treasury General Accounts. Source: TradingView
For simpletons, reduced federal outflows in the course of the shutdown meant the TGA balance shot up and bank reserves fell, tightening financing conditions. As operations resume, deferred payments and contract payouts can be processed, increasing bank reserves and releasing money into dangerous markets.
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This appears to be a major tailwind for XRP and the broader crypto market: more macro money combined with a bullish chart pattern equals a good setup.
Record stock market outflows signal strong XRP accumulation
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP has seen its largest monthly exchange outflows ever, suggesting investors are moving coins from trading platforms to self-custody, a classic sign of accumulation. In the past, such steep outflow spikes were accompanied by large price reversals and infrequently marked the tip of distribution phases.
XRP net exchange flows. Source: Glassnode
The data shows that greater than 1.4 billion XRP have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges on two separate occasions for the reason that starting of October, exceeding even the large withdrawals before XRP's 2024 breakout. This means supply is tightening on exchanges, reducing potential selling pressure, while technical charts point to a bullish breakout.
If these accumulation trends proceed, the mixture of dwindling foreign exchange reserves and improving macroeconomic liquidity – once the US shutdown ends – could create a powerful tailwind for the XRP price, reinforcing the “cup-and-handle breakout” narrative targeting the $4.80-$5.00 range.
