Key insights:
-
XRP fell over 9% following Ripple's swell event, extending its November losing streak.
-
A bear flag breakdown and a looming death cross suggest a possible decline towards $1.65.
XRP (XRP) has fallen sharply within the hours since Ripple's flagship Swell conference, erasing much of the short-lived rally seen throughout the event itself.
The strong announcements fail to impress XRP bulls
After peaking at nearly $2.40 on November 5, XRP has since fallen over 9%, slipping to $2.19 despite Ripple's high-profile announcements.
XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView
At this 12 months's Swell, held November 4-5 in New York, the corporate unveiled a $500 million funding round led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group, detailed recent integrations for its RLUSD stablecoin, and announced a decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Nonetheless, the worth of XRP has fallen again, reflecting the familiar “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic that always followed Ripple’s annual presentation.
In fact, XRP posted negative returns in 4 of the last five years since 2020 between the swell event (vertical blue lines within the chart below) and the tip of the 12 months, suggesting that the hype is consistently fading faster than the headlines.
Additionally, Bitcoin's transient dip below $100,000 because of stock market weakness and tightening US liquidity has cooled sentiment on altcoins, including XRP.
The XRP death cross suggests a decline below $2
XRP’s recent collapse has confirmed a classic bear flag continuation, reinforced by an impending death cross if the 50-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) falls below the 200-period EMA.
The bear flag pattern formed after XRP's sharp decline from around $3.60 in early September, followed by a narrow consolidation channel trending higher towards $2.60.
The firm rejection of the flag’s upper boundary and subsequent break below the lower boundary suggest that sellers are regaining control.
A decline in XRP towards the $1.65-$1.70 range is now possible, according to the measured bear flag move goal and April support.
The forecast downside goal closely aligns with XRP’s aggregate realized price, in accordance with Glassnode data.
This level represents the common on-chain cost base across all wallet cohorts, meaning a retest could mark a crucial value zone where long-term holders have historically amassed.
Such convergence often acts as a psychological and technical support base that limits further downward pressure.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
