2025 was a blockbuster yr for Bitcoin (BTC) and your complete crypto market, as crypto-friendly lawmakers introduced growth-oriented regulation and Wall Street finally accepted Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), and diverse altcoins as a sound asset class worthy of inclusion in an investment portfolio.
The global supply of Bitcoin, Ether and Solana's SOL (SOL) tokens has been nearly immeasurable, with total net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching $57 billion and total net assets across all ETFs reaching $114.8 billion.
Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows in 2025. Source: SoSoValue.com
Looking ahead to 2026, the true query is: Will the pace of adoption on the institutional, corporate and government levels, which were key price drivers in 2025, proceed? Since October, strong inflows to the spot Bitcoin ETF tapered off, turning right into a seller's marketplace for weeks in some cases, followed by a 30% correction in BTC and 50% in Ether.
In an interview with Schwab Network's Nicole Petallides, Cointelegraph Head of Markets Ray Salmond said that the crypto market's performance in early 2026 will depend upon a lot of aspects.
““Given the best way the narratives around AI, Fed rate cuts, a strategic Bitcoin reserve and ETF flows have driven the market, I’m curious to see whether the identical narratives will drive prices higher in 2026, or will a brand new narrative have to emerge to bring buyers back into the markets?”
Ray Salmond, Head of Markets at @Cointelegraph, tells @NPetallides that he expects Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana demand within the spot and ETF markets to set the tone for the industry in 2026.
For more market news, visit: https://t.co/PYaqKPRp8C pic.twitter.com/ZCp1EIXyUh
— Schwab Network (@SchwabNetwork) December 22, 2025
Beyond ETF flows and demand on spot markets like Binance and Coinbase, investor sentiment regarding the immense scale of the AI industry's expansion and the performance of the tech-heavy S&P 500 is prone to have a direct impact on crypto markets.
AI expansion, company valuations, fundraising, IPO performance and whether data center hyperscalers proceed to drive stock markets alongside MAG7 will remain top of mind for everybody.
In the interview, Salmond explained that rapid balance sheet expansion is a method that can drive technology-related stocks higher in 2025 as hyperscalers spend tens of billions on data centers, computers, Nvidia GPUs and energy. Sometime in 2026, these corporations are expected to show that they’ll monetize their investments or not less than finance the expansions from their internal money flow.
In the second half of 2025, Oracle, Meta and Nvidia saw their share prices decline because the market questioned whether there was a possibility that a few of these corporations' free money flow could turn negative. If investors smell smoke related to debt-heavy, cash-light AI and quantum computing corporations in 2026, there’ll likely be a negative response. Investors have to control how these shock waves affect the SPX, the DOW and, by proxy, cryptocurrencies.
Will the passage of the Clarity Act fortify altcoins, DeFi and huge caps?
An optimistic event to observe as we enter 2026 will likely be whether or not the Clarity Act goes into effect. The crypto lobby desired to enact this law before the top of the yr, however the long government shutdown delayed progress in drafting it.
If passed, the Clarity Act will provide clearer rules and the crucial environment for FinTech innovators to operate sandboxes within the US, and it’s hoped that more offshore crypto corporations will likely be headquartered within the US again.
This specifies which regulators (SEC and CFTC) have jurisdiction over different crypto assets depending on whether or not they are classified as securities or commodities. There can be a powerful emphasis on consumer protection, and a greater framework on this area could provide the transparency that companies and consumers need to speculate in crypto assets with confidence.
Will a pro-Trump Fed chair and easy-money policies boost markets?
The Federal Reserve's policy shift is anticipated to further morph into an easy-money system, and President Trump's election of the Fed chair in early 2026 is anticipated to end in rate of interest cuts of as much as 100 basis points.
According to Salmond,
“Crypto investors view Fed rate cuts as bullish for risk assets, but we’ve a Tale of Two Cities scenario where the info clashes with essentially the most bullish outlook.” 
Bull marketplace for AI, ETFs and stocks in 2026. Source: Schwab Network
Salmond explained: “The labor market is weakening and this cooling trend is anticipated to proceed in 2026. The 'temporary' impact of Trump tariffs has increased the associated fee of products and services, medical insurance premiums will rise and retail investor confidence could fall as layoffs are announced, consumer debt rises and disposable income falls.”
At the identical time, “investors expect that the Fed's rate cuts will result in lower mortgage rates, forcing banks to loosen lending constraints and enticing consumers to purchase more things. But the possible return of easy-money policies and high government spending essentially confirms that the US is setting off the debt bomb in the longer term.”
In the primary quarter of 2026, investors will likely be grappling with the dilemma of whether there are signals proving that the Fed's loose monetary policy is on the forefront and will be sold if confirmed, or will evolving Fed policy also reinvigorate the bull market in stocks in 2025 and extend to cryptocurrencies?
Investors who value optionality and a versatile presence should give you the chance to avoid among the pitfalls of a narrative and speculation-driven market, where the MAG7 and AI markets could prove overvalued.
On paper, the general outlook for 2026 is optimistic, especially when considering Trump's economic mandate, Fed policy and crypto-friendly regulation, but it surely is the unknown outcomes of AI expansion and the true impact of rate cuts on consumers and the economy that can determine the direction markets head in the primary and second quarters.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be responsible for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be responsible for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
