A bearish signal from the fee base metric of Will bulls defend critical price support?
The on-chain market structure of XRP (XRP) is analogous to a setup that resulted in significant losses in 2022 after the worth lost a key support level.
Key Takeaways:
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XRP’s on-chain structure reflects the February 2022 setup, which resulted in a 68% price drop.
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XRP bulls have to reclaim $2 to avoid a deeper correction towards $1.10.
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XRP spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $53.32 million, their second day of outflows ever and the most important since their launch.
The previous signal preceded a 68% drop in XRP price
Data from Glassnode warned that XRP’s current market structure “closely resembles that of February 2022,” an event that ultimately preceded months of weakness.
“XRP investors lively within the 1W-1M window are actually accumulating below the fee basis of the 6M-12M cohort,” the research firm wrote in a recent post on X.
This creates a scenario where newer buyers make profits while medium-term holders face losses. This gap creates overhead pressure over time if key support levels are usually not reclaimed.
Added Glassnode:
“As this structure continues, the psychological pressure on top buyers continues to extend over time.” XRP realized price. Source: Glassnode
The same pattern was observed in February 2022 when XRP traded at $0.78, resulting in a 68% decline to $0.30 by June 2022.
If history repeats itself, XRP could fall as little as $1.40 if the support at $1.80 to $2 doesn’t hold.
The $2 level is becoming a very important psychological zone
The $2 mark is a very important psychological threshold for XRP within the short to medium term. In a previous evaluation, Glassnode found that every retest of $2 because the start of 2025 triggered weekly realized losses of $500 million to $1.2 billion, suggesting that holders have decided to exit their positions and cut their losses.
“This underlines how strongly this level influences spending behavior.” 
XRP realized loss. Source: Glassnode
If the worth falls below this key $2 mark, pressure will grow on holders who acquired XRP at higher levels, while newer buyers accumulate their holdings at lower levels.
A fractal in 2022 highlights the importance of this level and suggests that price may undergo a deeper correction if it shouldn’t be reached again soon.
For example, the $0.55 level has also been a key support level previously. It supported the worth from April 2021 to May 2022, with each further retest weakening the support. The support was finally broken in May 2022, leading to a 48% decline to $0.28.
Likewise, a lack of support at $2 could trigger a downward spiral, with the worth bottoming just under the 200-week moving average at $1.03, similar to in 2022.
XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As Cointelegraph reported, XRP's break below the 50-day easy moving average (SMA) at $2 suggests that bears are back in the sport and the downside risk extends to $1.25.
XRP ETFs record their second day of outflows
Spot XRP ETFs on Tuesday recorded their second day of outflows since their launch, totaling $53 million, in accordance with data from SoSoValue. That was $13 million greater than the one other outflow of $40 million recorded on Jan. 7.
Spot XRP ETF flowchart. Source: SoSoValue
These outflows signal caution or profit-taking amongst institutional investors amid overall crypto market weakness and risk aversion, adding to pressure on the sell-side.
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