Bitcoin (BTC) hit latest lows below $73,000 on Tuesday as data shows worrying macroeconomic challenges simmer behind increasingly volatile markets. New data highlights tightening credit conditions at the same time as U.S. debt and borrowing costs remain high, and one analyst said this gap between credit prices and credit market stress could determine Bitcoin price motion in the approaching months.
Key Takeaways:
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The ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread is near 0.75, the tightest because the late Nineties.
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U.S. debt stands at $38.5 trillion while the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.28%.
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Bitcoin whale inflows to exchanges have increased, however the pace of on-chain profit-taking is slowing.
Options-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA US Corporate Index. Source: Fred
Tight credit spreads contrast with increasing economic pressures
The ICE BofA Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread could function a crucial macroeconomic signal for Bitcoin. The metric measures the extra return that investors demand for holding corporate bonds over U.S. Treasury bonds. When spreads widen, it typically reflects stress in credit markets.
Spreads remain highly compressed, suggesting that credit risk remains to be undervalued. This contrasts with broader macroeconomic conditions: U.S. government debt reached $38.5 trillion at the top of January, while the 10-year Treasury yield has risen back to 4.28%, resulting in tightening financial conditions at the same time as limited stress is priced into corporate credit.
US corporate index option spread versus Bitcoin. Source: Fred
In previous Bitcoin market cycles, including 2018, 2020, and 2022, BTC only formed an area bottom when credit spreads began to widen. This process took place with a delay of three to 6 months and had no immediate effect.
In August 2025, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson argued that Bitcoin could enter one other phase of accumulation as liquidity tightens and credit spreads rise in the approaching months, before broader market stress becomes apparent.
Bitcoin whale selling is increasing, but longer-term pressure is easing
Short-term selling activity for Bitcoin has increased this week. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that each whales and medium-term holders have recently transferred a big amount of BTC to Binance. On Monday, wallets with greater than 1,000 BTC deposited around 5,000 BTC, the same increase to December.
Bitcoin Binance exchange inflows by holder age. Source: CryptoQuant
At the identical time, holders from the six- to 12-month group also transferred 5,000 BTC to exchanges, the biggest inflow from this cohort since early 2024.
However, general selling pressure appears to be easing. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) fell to 1, its lowest level in a 12 months, as Bitcoin fell to a one-year low of $73,900 on Tuesday.
Historical patterns show that the Bitcoin bottom occurs three to 6 months after credit spreads begin to widen. Rising Treasury yields could pressure credit markets, potentially pushing spreads into the 1.5% to 2% range by April.
This may lead to an accumulation window after July 2026 that extends into the second half of the 12 months because the market absorbs this stress and takes cues from current SOPR data, suggesting long-term seller exhaustion.
ICE BofA US Yield Options Spread vs BTC Price. Source: X
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