According to certain metrics similar to the one-year moving average, Bitcoin may have already got been in a bear marketplace for two months Head of Research at CryptoQuant.
During an episode of the Milk Road show on Thursday, CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno said that almost all of the metrics he uses for the Bull Score Index turned bearish in early November and haven’t yet recovered.
The index measures market conditions using indicators similar to network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand and liquidity and ranges from 0 to 100.
“For me, the newest confirmation is a technical indicator, i.e.
A one-year moving average is the typical price of an asset over 12 months and is used to indicate long-term trends.
According to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko, the value of Bitcoin (BTC) began 2025 at around $93,000 and peaked at $126,080 in October before ending the 12 months lower than it began.
If Bitcoin is in a bear market, this contradicts many analyst predictions that see 2026 as a growth 12 months for Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bottom could possibly be around $56,000 to $60,000
Previous crypto bear markets have seen significant declines across the industry and it could take years for prices to get well.
Bitcoin is trading at around $88,543 on Friday; However, Moreno predicts that the underside of next 12 months's bear market will likely be within the $56,000 to $60,000 range based on Bitcoin's realized price and past performance.
Moreno predicts that the underside for the bear market will likely be reached next 12 months. Source: YouTube
“Historically, what has happened in previous bear markets is the value drops to what is known as the realized price, which is largely the typical price at which Bitcoin holders purchased their Bitcoin,” Moreno said.
“In the bull market, it diverges sharply to the upside, after which if there's a bear market, that must be the, I might say, perhaps the baseline expectation for a bottom for a price bottom during a bear market,” he added.
This time the bear market decline was less severe
A drop from Bitcoin's all-time high to $56,000 represents a drop of about 55%, which Moreno said could possibly be seen as a positive because it was previously much higher.
“If you should have a look at it positively, the decline from the all-time high is de facto not as big as in previous bear markets after we had a 70% or 80% decline. That shall be similar to 55% from the all-time high,” he said.
At the identical time, Moreno argues that this bear market is already more stable as there have been no high-profile cryptocurrency-related drops.
During the 2022 bear market, the Terra ecosystem collapsed in May, followed by the Celsius network in June and FTX in November, sending shockwaves through the industry.
There are also large institutional players accumulating cryptocurrencies frequently, a bigger pool of traders and investors willing to enter the market, and more reliable corporations and projects within the industry.
“Speaking of demand, there are actually other sorts of players which can be buying frequently. In previous bear markets, demand was principally down. I might say structurally we now have more institutional investors or ETFs that are usually not selling, and there’s some buying there as well.”
