HomeCoinsBitcoinThe Bitcoin cycle is much from over – here’s what’s happening

The Bitcoin cycle is much from over – here’s what’s happening

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After the decline within the second half of last week, Bitcoin prices proceed to consolidate throughout the $95,000 zone. The leading cryptocurrency is witnessing a bullish performance in January, marked by a net gain of 11.42% because the start of the brand new 12 months. However, the impact of the prolonged price correction from the fourth quarter of 2025 stays. Using recent on-chain data, a market analyst with the username MorenoDV_ has identified certain cohorts of holders who’re still experiencing extreme psychological stress, which could impact future price performance.

Bitcoin market risk redistribution continues – here’s why

In a QuickTake post on January 17, MorenoDV_ posits that the Bitcoin bull cycle continues despite the negative events within the fourth quarter of 2025. Notably, the crypto market leader saw a pointy 33% price correction after hitting its current all-time high ($126,198) in early October.

Although Bitcoin has seen a slight price rally over the past month, significant bear market expectations remain because of lower market demand and failure to beat key technical levels akin to the 365-day MA. Using Realized Price by UTXO Age Band data, MorenoDV explains that the Bitcoin market actively redistributes risk. This positive development contradicts the pessimistic narrative of the top of the market cycle.

Source: CryptoQuant

With a current spot price of around $95,583, the CryptoQuant metric shows that psychological stress is unevenly distributed amongst Bitcoin holders. Notably, short-term holders i.e. 1w-1m and 1m-3m cohorts have realized prices i.e. $89,255 and $93,504 below the spot price respectively. This data suggests that these classes of investors are generating profits and are facing low levels of market pressure, helping to maintain fear at bay.

However, medium-term holders of $3 million to $6 million and long-term holders of $6 million to $12 million have achieved prices of $114,808 and $100,748, respectively, each well above the present spot price. However, each cohorts of holders have chosen to endure the inconvenience by absorbing losses reasonably than initiating aggressive reallocation.

Therefore, because the spot price approaches the realized price level of those stressed cohorts, losses are expected to scale back significantly, ultimately reducing pressure on these holder classes and offsetting market risk. This market development will only occur if the 3-6 month and 6-12 month forecasts proceed to interpret the present market decline as a mere cyclical inconvenience reasonably than a change in market structure. Therefore, a sustained bullish narrative and constructive price behavior is required to discourage these investors from looking for an exit from the market.

Bitcoin price overview

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $95,265, up a modest 5.3% during the last week.

BitcoinBTC is trading at $95,121 on the each day chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

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