The Bitcoin futures-to-spot basis has fallen into negative territory, indicating a big shift in trader sentiment towards de-risking. For the primary time since March 2025, futures are actually trading below spot prices, eliminating the premium that typically reflects strong demand for leverage.
This move right into a futures discount phase suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) traders have gotten less willing to take risks and are as a substitute taking a lower view of BTC's near-term prospects.
Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin Futures – Spot base turns negative, signaling caution and risk reduction amongst traders.
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The increase in internal currency flows has historically caused volatility and liquidity stress on BTC.
The Bitcoin futures spot basis signals two different paths
A negative base often occurs during times of position reduction or when markets are preparing for volatility. BTC is currently trading throughout the “base zone,” an area related to greater selling pressure or lower engagement. Both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are trending downward, confirming a bearish trend within the futures market.
Bitcoin base: future spot (%). Source: CryptoQuant
However, the historical pattern complicates the image. Since August 2023, each time the seven-day SMA has turned negative, there was a bottoming range during bull phases. If the market has not yet fully entered a bear cycle, this might again function an indication of an early recovery.
If conditions are just like January 2022, the signal could as a substitute mark the beginning of a deeper downturn. A return above the bottom range of 0% to 0.5% can be the primary sign of renewed confidence.
The data also showed that the leverage ratio of BTC-USDT futures fell to 0.3, suggesting that the market's previously overheated leverage from Q2 to Q3 has finally cooled down. A lower ratio reflects lower forced liquidation risk and a healthier futures structure.
If bullish momentum returns, this background with cleaner leverage could act as a positive catalyst by giving traders room to take risks again without the fragility seen earlier within the yr.
The seek for the Bitcoin bottom continues
Crypto analyst Pelin Ay said that the exchange's internal flow adds much more weight to the present downtrend. This metric measures the quantity of BTC moved between internal exchange wallets, typically for operational purposes or to balance liquidity. While not a direct indicator of selling, strong spikes often coincide with periods of turbulence and major changes amongst major players.
From late 2024 to early 2025, the market experienced massive internal transfer spikes during rapid price increases, which were followed by steep corrections. The pattern repeated in May-June 2025 when BTC climbed from $60,000 to $90,000, confirming its bullish correlation.
Now the indicator has risen again and is well above its usual range of 5 to 10 in early November. This increase coincided with BTC's sharp decline from over $110,000 to $95,000. Historically, such increases reflect liquidity constraints, increased volatility and price pressure.
Given the mix of a negative base, rising internal flows, and increasing bearish momentum, BTC appears poised to proceed trying to find a bottom.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
