Bitcoin (BTC) could remain below $100,000 for the remaining of 2025 because the market weakened following the US Federal Reserve's rate of interest cut decision on Wednesday.
Key Takeaways:
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According to prediction markets, BTC price only has a 30 percent probability of reaching $100,000 before January 1st.
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Bitcoin Treasury purchases have slowed significantly, hindering short-term recovery attempts.
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Bitcoin faces resistance at $94,000, with a breakout from the ascending triangle possible to the $98,000 liquidity zone.
30% probability of BTC reclaiming $100,000 before the New Year
The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to remain below the $100,000 mark in the subsequent 21 days.
As of December eleventh, Kalshi bettors expect a few 34% probability of BTC breaking $100,000 before December thirty first. Polymarket estimates a 29% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before the top of 2025.
Bitcoin price goal: $100,000 before December thirty first. Source: Kalshi
Bitcoin's December high is $94,600 and was reached on Tuesday. The last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on November thirteenth.
Several aspects have slowed Bitcoin's near-term recovery attempts, including growing macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in Bitcoin government bond purchases.
Data from Capriole Investments shows that the variety of corporations buying Bitcoin per day continues to say no, an indication that institutions could also be exhausted.
Despite lower demand for Bitcoin treasuries, Polymarket's possibilities of strategy selling Bitcoin before the top of the 12 months remain marginal, while expectations for routine small purchases remain high.
Polymarket traders still view routine strategy purchases this week as a high probability event, with a 65 percent probability of shopping for over 1,000 BTC.
Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings to 660,624 BTC after purchasing 10,624 coins for around $962.7 million, and is on target to match last 12 months's Bitcoin purchases.
Bitcoin’s upside potential could possibly be capped at $98,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating inside an ascending triangle on shorter time frames.
Price is “now hitting that resistance again,” analyst Daan Crypto Trades said in an X post on Wednesday, referring to the provision zone between the year-opening $93,300 and $94,000.
A break and hold above $94,000 should lead to a move towards the triangle's measured goal at around $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades said it could only go so far as a “retest of the previous support area around $98,000,” adding:
“There can also be a whole lot of liquidity here.” 
As Cointelegraph reported, buyers have to push Bitcoin above $94,589 to open the gates to a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 zone.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be responsible for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
