Several crypto-related stocks rose on Friday because the probability of a December rate cut rose to 87% on Polymarket, the best this month.
Three U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners led the rally, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining all rising within the session and posting double-digit gains over the past five days.
Probability of a rate cut within the US in December. Source: Polymarket
Data from Yahoo Finance showed that USDC issuer Circle was up nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor's Strategy and Coinbase posted more modest gains on the time of writing.
Bitcoin (BTC) also rose about 7% this week after falling to around $82,000 on November 21, in line with CoinGecko data.
Much of the volatility in forecast market prices this month was brought on by comments from Federal Reserve officials.
On Oct. 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said a rate cut in December was “not a given,” a comment that was perceived by investors as hawkish — meaning the Fed could delay rate cuts and keep conditions tight. Polymarket odds fell from 89% the day before to simply 22% on November twentieth.
The mood modified on November 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates of interest next month, citing that “the labor market continues to be weak and shut to stalling” and that inflation is now “relatively close” to the Fed's 2 percent goal.
Prediction markets expand as demand increases
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which permit bettors to bet on the consequence of real-world events, have expanded their reach and influence this yr.
On November 13, Polymarket signed a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to serve because the official prediction market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championships and Zuffa Boxing. The partnership got here shortly after partnering with North American fantasy sports provider PrizePicks.
That same month, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, increasing its valuation to $11 billion, in line with a TechCrunch report citing an individual aware of the deal. The recent round followed a $300 million raise in October.
On November 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase was developing its own prediction market platform after technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong posted screenshots of an unpublished website. Wong's images suggested that the product could be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and supported by Kalshi.
On Wednesday, Robinhood said prediction markets have quickly develop into one in every of the fastest-growing revenue drivers, with greater than one million users trading nine billion contracts for the reason that product launched in March through a partnership with Kalshi.
