History shows that XMR has repeatedly failed near record highs and risks one other sharp decline unless it breaks decisively above $500-520.
Key Takeaways:
Monero (XMR) has risen above $500 for the primary time since its peak in May 2021.
The privacy-focused cryptocurrency briefly hit $500.66 after rising greater than 6% on Sunday and 20% over the past week. This brought it closer to its record high of around $517.50, which was reached in April 2021.
XMR/USD every day chart. Source: TradingView
The Zcash fiasco causes the XMR price to rise
Monero's rise stood in sharp contrast to the turmoil that engulfed its rival Zcash (ZEC), the privacy coin.
On Wednesday, the Electric Coin Company (ECC) team behind Zcash resigned en masse, citing intolerable working conditions and board disputes over the project's assets and direction.
The fallout revealed deep rifts in Zcash's leadership, particularly around its bootstrapped project and funding allocations. ZEC's price plunged over 20% days after the mass withdrawal, hitting a weekly low of around $360 over the weekend.
ZEC/USD every day chart. TradingView
Monero also received support from a wave of bullish institutional commentary.
In their latest reports, corporations akin to Grayscale and Coinbase highlighted privacy coins as a key growth theme, citing the increasing demand for financial confidentiality in an increasingly regulated crypto landscape.
With Zcash in transition, traders appeared to favor Monero as a cleaner privacy risk.
The Monero fractal suggests that the rally won’t last
In January, XMR was on the verge of price discovery and was aiming for a breakout above its record high of around $517.50.
Similar breakout attempts have occurred seven times previously, every one failing and followed by sharp corrections starting from around 40% to 95% towards ascending trendline support.
XMR/USD two-week chart. Source: TradingView
If history repeats itself, XMR is susceptible to entering an prolonged correction phase, sending the value higher towards $200-$270, an area that coincides with lower trendline support and prevailing Fibonacci retracement lines.
Conversely, a sustained breakout above the $500-$520 resistance would invalidate the bearish fractal.
In this scenario, XMR could follow the trail of cryptocurrencies that broke out after multi-year consolidations in 2025, opening the door for a rally towards $775, a Fibonacci retracement line and a brand new all-time high this 12 months.
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This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph won’t be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
