According to analysts at Glassnode, the recent wave of whale selling pressure in Bitcoin is typical of a late-stage crypto cycle and must be no more worrisome than up to now.
On Thursday, a serious Bitcoin whale made moves to sell. According to blockchain analytics platform Arkham, a wallet belonging to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 Bitcoin (BTC) price $237 million to crypto exchange Kraken.
This adds to a recent spate of Bitcoin whales seemingly turning away from the cryptocurrency.
However, Glassnode analysts argued that the info shows that narratives like “OG whales dumping” or “Bitcoin’s quiet IPO” are more nuanced in point of fact.
According to Glassnode, the typical monthly spending of long-term holders suggests that inflows have increased from over 12,000 Bitcoin per day in early July to around 26,000 on Thursday, indicating a daily and even distribution, not “specific OG dumping, but normal bull market behavior.”
“This regular increase reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor groups – a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, fairly than a sudden exodus of whales.” Source: Glassnode
“Long-term holders have made gains on this cycle as they’ve in every previous cycle,” Glassnode added.
The crypto market has not yet reached its peak: Kronos Research
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, said whale sales are a structured cycle flow and a gentle profit rotation fairly than panic often indicates a late cycle phase, together with increasing realized profits and robust liquidity.
However, Liu said this “late cycle phase” doesn't necessarily mean the market has peaked, so long as there are buyers to scoop up the brand new supply.
“The late cycle doesn’t mean that the market has reached its limit, but fairly that momentum has weakened while macro and liquidity conditions steer the ship. Fading rate cut bets and near-term weakening have slowed the uptrend, not crashed it,” Liu said.
“On-chain readings suggest a possible bottom. Bitcoin's net unrealized profit ratio of 0.476 suggests that short-term bottoms could also be forming, which provides strategic positioning, nevertheless it is just one in every of many indicators to trace to substantiate a market bottom.”
Crypto market sentiment has been worrying as the general market continues to plunge. Analysts attribute this to a lot of macroeconomic aspects, comparable to traders switching to assets which can be more clearly depending on economic policy and credit flows.
Market peaks are frequently 4 years apart
Charlie Sherry, chief financial officer of Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said isolated whale selling shouldn’t be often significant, but this time there was a noticeable lack of meaningful buy-side support to soak up these selling.
However, he still believes it is just too early to say whether this can be a sign of a cycle peak, even though it is plausible.
Historically, market peaks have occurred roughly 4 years apart, as seen in December 2017, roughly 1,067 days after the trough, and November 2021, roughly 1,058 days after the trough.
“The most up-to-date all-time high on October 6, 2025 was 1,050 days after the underside. From this attitude, it’s plausible that now we have already overcome this cycle and are entering the early stages of a bear market,” said Sherry.
Market cycles may not have any influence
At the identical time, nevertheless, Sherry identified that the “four-year cycle concept shouldn’t be valid” as there are few examples to attract on and Bitcoin continues to evolve with different demand dynamics fueled by exchange-traded funds and company bonds.
“These buyers don’t trade in cycles and don’t follow the four-year rhythm. The appetite of those players has been weak recently, but that may change quickly,” he said.
“Only time will tell whether now we have just reached a cycle high. There are fundamental explanation why Bitcoin may not follow a four-year cycle, however the strength of those fundamentals is being tested right away.”
