Solana (SOL) price could have formed a low around $100 over multiple time periods, a setup that would help SOL price rally toward $260 in the long run.
Key Takeaways:
SOL needs to interrupt multiple resistance levels before $260
SOL’s price motion has led to the looks of a possible V-shaped recovery pattern on the four-hour chart.
This follows a pointy decline that saw SOL price fall 25% from a high of $127, which was halted by buyers across the $100 support level.
The relative strength index (RSI) had risen from oversold conditions at 18 to 36 within the four-hour period, indicating some bullish momentum.
The each day RSI was oversold at 29, a level that previously marked market lows and triggered SOL price rallies.
As bulls hope to finish the V-shaped pattern, price is encountering key obstacles on its recovery path, including the $113-$115 supply band, where some key trendlines converge.
The second area of interest is the $125-$130 supply zone, defined by the 50-day EMA and 50-day SMA respectively.
SOL/USD each day and four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Furthermore, the SOL/USD pair could proceed to rise towards the neckline of the pattern across the $150 supply zone, representing a 44% increase from the present price.
Zooming out, the weekly chart shows strong support for SOL at $95-$100 as shown below.
The most up-to-date rebound from this level triggered a 166% increase in SOL price from $95 to $250 between April 2025 and September 2025.
Should the identical scenario play out, SOL could extend today's rally to $260 in the approaching weeks or months, a 150% increase from current levels.
SOL/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The 50-week MAs are between $140 and $160, an area that has historically acted as resistance to delay price advances.
Trader Tardigrade said SOL’s recovery from the lower boundary of the descending channel could see it rise towards the upper boundary around $215.
Source: Trader Tardigrade
As Cointelegraph reported, SOL price could rise to the $120-$150 range if the 20-day EMA at $106 is reclaimed as support.
Solana's TVL and network activity are increasing
Solana’s primary decentralized application (DApp) metric began showing strength in mid-January.
The network's Total Value Locked (TVL), which measures the quantity deposited in its smart contracts, rose to its highest ever level on Monday at 73.4 million SOL, value about $7.5 billion at current rates. This represents an 18% increase from last week.
Solana Network Total Value Locked, SOL. Source: DefiLlama
The last time this metric reached each day highs was in June 2022, when TVL exceeded 68.3 million SOL. This increase was largely driven by the high network activity and NFT boom on Solana in 2021. This was accompanied by an 80% increase within the SOL price between June and August 2022.
Additionally, the each day transaction count on Solana hit a two-year high of 109.5 million on Monday.
Solana transaction count and DEX volume. Source: DefiLlama
Daily DEX trading volume also hit an eight-month high of 51.3 million SOL on Monday, while weekly DEX trading volume hit a 12-month high of 264.8 million SOL within the week ending Sunday.
As Cointelegraph reported, each day energetic addresses on Solana saw a 115% increase within the second half of January, which has historically been positive for the long run SOL price.
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