The price of Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is in peril of falling below $2,000 in February as a classic bearish scenario plays out.
Key Takeaways:
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ETH’s breakdown keeps the downside goal of $1,665 in focus.
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The MVRV bands also suggest that the worth is sliding towards $1,725 or below before a possible bottom.
ETH/USD every day chart. Source: TradingView
ETH vulnerable to 25% decline in February
On Wednesday, ETH entered the breakdown phase of its dominant inverse cup and handle (IC&H) pattern. This could extend a downtrend that has already lost about 60% since its August 2025 peak.
An IC&H pattern forms when price forms a rounded top after which drifts upward in a small recovery channel. It normally dissipates when the worth falls below the neckline support and sometimes falls to the utmost height of the cup.
Ether broke below the inverted cup-and-handle neckline at around $2,960 in January. It later rallied to retest that level as resistance, a standard move after a breakdown only to fall again.
Ethereal inverted mug and handle. Source: TradingView
ETH’s recovery also stalled below the 20-day (green) and 50-day EMAs (red), which acted as overhead resistance.
These confluence indicators increased the likelihood of ETH falling towards the IC&H collapse goal at around $1,665, a 25% decline in February or early March.
According to a study by Chartswatcher, the reverse cup-and-handle has historically achieved its predicted downside goal with an 82% success rate.
From a macro perspective, Ethereum's downside risk is increasing as traders cut back their crypto bets amid fears the market could slip right into a broader downturn in 2026, much like previous “four-year cycle” pullbacks.
Fear of an “AI bubble” bursting can also be forcing traders to avoid riskier bets like crypto.
Ethereum’s MVRV bands suggest a goal of $1,725
Ethereum's downside technical goal was slightly below the bottom boundary of its MVRV extreme divergence price ranges and is currently $1,725.
These bands are on-chain price zones that indicate when ETH is trading below or above the common price at which traders last moved their coins.
Ethereum MVRV price bands with extreme deviation. Source: Glassnode
Historically, ETH price fell near and even below the bottom MVRV band before bottoming out.
This includes the bounce in April 2025, when ETH price rose 90% for a month after testing the bottom MVRV deviation band around $1,390. An identical recovery occurred in June 2018.
Therefore, Ether could fall towards $1,725 or below in February, consistent with IC&H's downside goal.
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