Ethereum is ending 2025 at around $2,970 after a chaotic quarter. The market is split. Some analysts expect the following growth cycle to start. Others warn that the structure remains to be unsafe or inconsistent.
The truth lies in the center. The chart suggests pressure, the seasonality balance is uncertain, and on-chain flows show early support but no conviction.
The lineup until 2026 is just not clean. The query is easy: is Ethereum preparing for a recovery or organising one other decline?
The bearish price structure meets a historically volatile start
On the 3-day chart, ETH is trading inside a rising channel that appears like a bear flag. A break below this structure prompts the measured movement. If the technical forecast is confirmed, it implies a downside move of around 44% from the breakdown levels.
Note: The risk of a collapse decreases significantly if Ethereum continues to maneuver throughout the channel for a while.
Bearish ETH structure until 2026: TradingView
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However, seasonality makes this difficult. January has historically been reliable for Ethereum, with a long-term average of just about +33%, but last January wasn't great. January 2025 began with a decline, triggering 4 consecutive red months. If a flag collapse occurs, the seasonal momentum that always begins a brand new yr could fail again.
Ethereum Price History: CryptoRank
The bearish risk related to a historically volatile period doesn’t fit well with expert predictions that Ethereum will reach somewhere between $7,000 and $9,000 in 2026. At least not yet.
According to Tom Lee:
Ethereum could reach $7,000 to $9,000 in early 2026
Bitcoin could move towards $200,000 in 2026
Ethereum has a longer-term path towards $20,000
Instead of calling it a “supercycle,” he describes this as a fundamental shift in market structure. pic.twitter.com/uaCmAUUD4u
— Clockwise Crypto (@clockwisecrypto) December 27, 2025
The weakness aligns with what Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told BeInCrypto when asked about predictions of $9,000 in 2026:
“Capital must stop leaving Ethereum, actual usage must transcend today's pilots, and provide must remain locked for longer periods of time,” he mentions
He added that the present environment doesn’t yet support outbreak expectations:
“We see the present picture as mixed,” he added.
So the diagram shows the chance. Seasonality shows uncertainty. The analyst's view points to a slow, conditional and externally dependent recovery. These improvements could also be visible on-chain, but only faintly.
On-chain flows show hope, but not yet conviction
Some on-chain signals argue against an entire collapse.
Long-term holders have finally change into buyers again. The Hodler net position change metric (which shows long-term flows of investor funds) turned positive on December 26 for the primary time since July and remained positive for several days. This suggests that patient capital is at lower levels but cautiously.
As the entry queue for Ethereum staking exceeds the exit path, Hodler Buys may find yourself locked. This is something Ryan Lee mentioned as a prerequisite for a better ETH price rise.
Ryan adds some more details:
“More than 740,000 ETH are waiting to be staked, while about half of them are within the exit queue. Almost 30% of the overall ETH supply is already staked,” he identified
This suggests accumulation and an intention to secure supply, but the dimensions is just not yet sufficient to force a trend reversal. Behavior reflects interest quite than leadership.
Whales have also returned. After the provision fell to around 100.01 million ETH outside of exchanges at the tip of November, it rose again to 101.21 million ETH by December thirty first. This $3.6 billion accumulation is significant. However, the number remains to be below the height of 101.90 million in early November. Until this peak is broken, whale demand is more supportive than decisive.
ETF flows remain the most important gap within the bullish argument. Spot ETH ETFs saw outflows of around $1.97 billion as each November and December ended negatively.
Ryan is blunt here and believes the ETF gap is limiting price movements tremendously:
“At the moment, major capital is leaving the ecosystem, in order that limits the worth potential.”
So the on-chain story is an improvement without conviction. This appears to be an early bottom formation, not a trend reversal.
The roadmap for 2026 is determined by key Ethereum price levels
This is where the diagram and Ryan’s framework connect.
ETH needs to remain above $2,760 to maintain the flag structure together. Loss of this level weakens the structure and exposes $2,650 and $2,400. A deeper move towards $2,140 and $1,780 will confirm the breakdown. If the bear flag comes into full effect, the pattern predicts a decline towards $1,320, which is the 44 percent calculation from the breakout point.
For an upward reversal, the worth needs to interrupt the $3,470 level to challenge the ceiling. An increase above $3,670 will see the structure reverse. However, the true breakout to the upside will only occur once ETH has reclaimed the $4,770 mark – the purpose where the flagpole began and the extent that resets the trend.
Only above this zone do targets like $7,000 to $9,000 make structural sense, and even there Ryan still sees the move as conditional:
“Therefore, our base case is a slow, condition-driven recovery. The price may rise, but it surely is more likely that this may occur steadily,” he believes.
He also explains who comes out first when easing macroeconomic policy (rate of interest cut expectations) improves liquidity:
“Bitcoin will likely respond first. Ethereum will follow shortly after as staking becomes dominant, the amount of tokenized assets grows and ETF flows stabilize,” he said.
If liquidity improves in 2026, Bitcoin is prone to take the lead. Ethereum price will only follow if ETF outflows stop, whale supply breaks its November peak, and stake demand continues, driven by continued hodler additions.
Until these conditions match, the trend will remain neutral to bearish.
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: What to Expect from ETH in 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Article source: beincrypto.com
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: What to Expect from ETH in 2026 appeared first on Crypto Adventure.
