Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), continued its slide into December after falling about 30% over the past three months, raising concerns about how far the selloff could extend into the tip of the yr.
Key insights:
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ETH could slide towards $2,500-$2,200 if the MVRV support and pennant break down.
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A possible breakout of the falling wedge keeps bulls’ hopes of a rally to $3,550 alive.
ETH/USDT monthly chart. Source: TradingView
Ether’s MVRV is $2,500
On Tuesday, Ether tested its −0.5σ (teal) MVRV deviation band, currently at $2,820 to $2,830, as support for the second time in per week, Glassnode data shows.
The MVRV bands compare Ethereum's market price to the degrees at which holders have recently moved their coins and infrequently highlight key support and resistance zones.
As a result, the −0.5σ band has repeatedly acted as essential mid-cycle support during downtrends.
In March, ETH's decisive close below the −0.5σ band was preceded by a 40% decline, with the value moving towards the realized price band (purple) as the primary major downside goal.
A sustained break below the -0.5σ support this time would shift the main focus back to the realized price near $2,500, a level that has historically acted as a bearish magnet during market correction phases.
The Ethereum pennant points to a next 20% correction
Ether's recent price motion consolidated right into a bearish pennant on the each day chart, a triangular continuation pattern that typically forms after sharp declines and resolves within the direction of the previous trend.
A confirmed pennant breakout would open the door for a measured move towards the $2,200-$2,220 area, about 20% below current levels. The zone coincided with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 rally and an earlier demand cluster from April.
The downside goal also appeared across the apex of a falling wedge pattern shared by analyst Dom.
Falling wedges typically result in breakouts; However, this might suggest that ETH could form a neighborhood bottom across the $2,200-2,220 zone in December.
ETH can rise towards $3,550 early in the brand new yr if the value breaks above the upper trendline of the wedge, as shown below.
This upside goal is consistent with ETH price predictions made by several analysts throughout the recent downturns. Other Ethereum valuation models proceed to predict ETH prices above $4,000 and consider the cryptocurrency “undervalued.”
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
