Ether (ETH) is down 42% from its all-time high of $4,950, and traders are wondering where the altcoin is prone to bottom next.
Key Takeaways:
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Ethereum traders expect ETH price to say no to $2,100 if the support at $2,800 fails.
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Continued bans on Ether ETFs and fewer government bond purchases bring more risks for bulls.
Analysis: 25% ETH price drop possible
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed that the ETH/USD pair has fallen back below $3,000.
Commenting on the recent price motion, analyst and trader Daan Crypto Trades said that while this cycle didn’t meet ETH investors' expectations, Ether's “market structure and the Ethereum ecosystem have matured during this time,” adding:
“I cannot defend the value motion this cycle, it has significantly underperformed $BTC and lots of others.”
An accompanying chart suggested that if ETH were to lose its $2,800 support, it might likely fall towards the subsequent major support level around $2,100.
ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Data from Glassnode showed that the subsequent significant support below $2,800 is around $2,100, where around 2.1 million ETH were previously acquired.
Although Polymarket bettors are only pricing in about an 11 percent probability that ETH will fall to $2,000 to $2,200 before the top of 2025, they see an 83 percent probability that Ether price will rise back to $2,500 and a 59 percent probability that it should fall to $2,000 in 2026.
Ether price targets before December 31, 2026. Source: Polymarket
Ether's 2025 low is $1,380, reached in April, and the last time the ETH/USD pair traded at $2,100 was on May ninth. However, the present decline of 42% from the all-time high is comparatively small. Previous bear cycles bottomed after the value fell by around 80-90%.
ETH price decline from all-time high. Source: Glassnode
Investors reduce the danger of Ethereum ETFs
Institutional demand for US-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has declined, in line with data from Farside Investors.
These investment products recorded outflows totaling $533.1 million for five consecutive days, leading to a decline in assets under management to $17.34 billion.
“US-based Ethereum ETFs proceed to see capital outflows,” IT Tech, analyst at CryptoQuant, said in his latest post on X, adding:
“Investors are de-risking or quietly turning away from ETH, suggesting there isn’t any immediate comeback for Ether.” 
Spot Ether ETFs flow table. Source: Farside Investors
Additional data from Capriole Investments shows that each day purchases by Ethereum financial firms have fallen to 12,095 ETH per day from a high of 78,010 ETH on August twenty third.
Ethereum: Daily rate of buying treasury bonds. Source: Capriole Investments
Although BitMine is accelerating its Ether purchases, several on-chain and technical indicators surrounding ETH have turned bearish, suggesting more trouble lies ahead.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we attempt to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the data in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
