Key Takeaways:
-
Ether price previously fell 60% from a bearish cross that’s back in play.
-
ETH needs to remain above $4,000 to avoid further losses.
Ether’s (ETH) MACD indicator sent a “sell” signal on its weekly chart, an event that has historically preceded sharp price declines.
Previous signals led to a 46-60% drop in ETH price
Ether’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator issued a bearish signal in early 2025, a period during which ETH spot price fell by over 60% in a matter of weeks.
An analogous pattern is now emerging in October, increasing the likelihood of a sharper decline in the approaching days or even weeks.
The MACD is a well-liked momentum indicator utilized in technical evaluation that helps traders discover the strength, direction and duration of a trend in an asset's price.
The indicator has created a bearish cross on the weekly chart as shown within the image below.
Previous cases show that ETH tends to fall sharply when the MACD line (blue) crosses the signal line (orange). The altcoin’s losses reached 46% in mid-2024 and 60% in the primary quarter of 2025.
ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“I don’t like this Ethereum weekly MACD cross in red after 22 weeks in green,” analyst CRYPTO Damus said in a Tuesday post
Crypto analyst Titan warned his followers to be “prepared for any scenario” once the signal is confirmed.
Is #Ethereum changing the dynamic? 👀
After breaking the range highs, $ETH appears to be moving back into the weekly range.
Although the week is just not yet over, MACD is currently trending bearishly.
Confirmation required, but one should be prepared for any scenario. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/Zi6d68jMdr
— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) October 16, 2025
Other ETH price analysts suggest that the altcoin could extend its decline to retest lower support levels before starting one other rally towards $5,000.
Bulls must keep ETH price above $4,000
Ether's price is approaching a critical point because it retests the $4,000 support level, an area it has held since reclaiming it in early August.
Bulls must keep ETH price above this level to extend the probabilities of the uptrend resuming.
Note that the last time Ether fell below this level was in December 2021, followed by a 78% decline in ETH price, bottoming out at around $880 through the 2022 bear market.
“As long as ETH price stays above the $3,899 support level, a direct move higher stays possible,” said Elliott Wave analyst Man of Bitcoin in an X post, adding:
“A break below this level would suggest a significant correction is unfolding.”
Trader Koala said ETH is currently in a “weekly breakdown and trend loss” after losing support at $4,200.
“We will probably see a downward acceleration sooner quite than later.”
$ETH
This is a weekly breakdown and trend loss.
This is just not a Bullish Chop (i.e. Cope from the Bulls)
We are prone to see a downward acceleration sooner quite than later.
Weekly range deviation low?
Perhaps.
But I wouldn't bet on that. pic.twitter.com/4Fq2OsOO7j
– Trader Koala (@trader_koala) October 16, 2025
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether bears are currently on top of things and are focused on pushing the value below the lower boundary of a descending channel at $3,745 on the every day timeframe.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
