Ethereum (ETH) traders are quietly returning to leverage, with recent futures data indicating a big shift in market positioning as ETH approaches a critical technical zone.
Key Takeaways:
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Ether leads all major crypto assets in futures-to-spot ratio, with a current rating of 6.84.
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Derivatives traders are shifting risk to ETH as Bitcoin sees a decline in open interest.
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The technical structure stays constructive, and bulls see a possible rise towards $3,390 if key levels flip.
ETH futures are attracting more attention from traders
Recent data from CryptoQuant suggests that Ether's futures-to-spot ratio on Binance rose sharply from 5 to six.84, the very best level within the fourth quarter. This acceleration marked a key shift in market behavior, with traders increasingly favoring leveraged exposure over spot accumulation.
Binance Futures/Spot Ratio for BTC, ETH, XRP. Source: CryptoQuant
Compared to Bitcoin and Solana, that are at 4 and 4.3 respectively, ETH has created a niche for itself as probably the most aggressively positioned large-cap asset available in the market. This divergence suggested rising expectations for ETH-specific volatility or future catalysts, with traders betting heavily on derivatives to benefit from directional moves.
Binance's on-chain data further supports this shift, highlighting a big decline in Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) over the past two weeks, while Ether's OI has remained relatively stable with only a slight average decline of 0.47% per day. The trend suggests that market participants are shifting risk capital from BTC’s uptrend into the upper beta opportunity of ETH.
ETH traders remain divided over the subsequent move
After ETH broke above $3,000 this week, analysts debated whether ETH can convert rising derivatives pressure right into a sustained breakout.
Crypto trader Scient argued that ETH's structure is already higher than Bitcoin and pointed to a strengthened four-hour support base around $2,800. Bulls assumed that this area would attract recent buyers upon each retest, triggering an initial push toward $3,050 and potentially the biggest liquidity cluster at $3,390, an area consistent with high-time frame support/resistance, a good value gap (FVG), and the annual open.
However, Lab Trading analyst Ken believes that the near-term trajectory continues to be bearish. ETH has consistently rejected the four-hour 100 EMA level throughout November, and the trader warned that the market risks an extra downside extension if the $3,000 level fails to cross over into the support zone.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Kingpin Crypto said the “Thanksgiving lull” is a possible springboard. As price responds to the .618 retracement of the 2025 rally and several other higher timeframe supports below, some predict a December “Ethereum Santa rally” towards the $3,300 level, especially as Bitcoin’s dominance continues to wane.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
