Analysts and investors are wondering why crypto isn't in a bull market given all of the positive momentum that has taken place this 12 months.
“At some point we’ve to confess that something is structurally broken within the crypto market,” CNBC Crypto contributor Ran Neuner said on Tuesday.
He explained that several favorable aspects are expected to contribute to the performance of crypto markets, including increased liquidity, a crypto-friendly US government, various exchange-traded fund launches, large institutional investments and investments by crypto treasury firms, in addition to strong performance in traditional markets corresponding to gold, silver and major stock indices.
However, crypto markets are on course to finish the 12 months lower than they began, with total market capitalization down greater than 32% from its all-time high of $4.4 trillion in early October and down nearly 13% since January 1.
Cryptocurrency market capitalization is on course to finish the 12 months lower than it began. Source: CoinGecko
Two possible outcomes for crypto
Neuner said there are two possible outcomes for crypto: discovering “what's actually broken and who's selling” or the “mother of all catch-ups because that's how markets work.”
Economist Adam Kobeissi said: “One day we’ll look back on the last two months of seemingly every day mass liquidations of cryptocurrencies and be crystal clear about what is going on:”
“Crypto is experiencing structural change amid historic leverage.”
Calling it an “epic battle until sellers run out of ammunition,” analyst “PlanB” explained that selling pressure continues to be coming from “OGs traumatized into 2021,” technical investors listening to the relative strength index, and those that consider within the four-year cycle and consider a bear market is imminent.
Crypto winter is already here
Meanwhile, some analysts are convinced that the bear market is already underway.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the primary major risk asset to be priced right into a slowing economy,” Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, told Cointelegraph.
“Retail participation never significantly resumed this cycle, and value creation remained narrowly concentrated in Bitcoin moderately than expanding into risk assets. Winter isn’t coming; it has already arrived.”
Actually, it's not that bad
Despite the poor performance of the spot markets, the industry's fundamentals remain solid.
“While prices could have fallen in need of expectations, this 12 months has seen more structural progress than every other in cryptocurrency history,” said Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain enterprise firm Pantera, in a report on Tuesday.
Like Neuner, he listed several milestones for the industry this 12 months, including a personnel and attitude change at U.S. financial regulators, the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset supply within the U.S., and a rise in stablecoin supply and the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets.
“From this angle, we consider there was no more vital 12 months for the industry than 2025. This is the 12 months we began to put the deep caissons to support sustained, long-term growth.”
