The typical altcoin rally is more likely to fade next yr as only “blue-chip” cryptocurrencies account for the lion’s share of liquidity, says Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx Research.
“Retail investors who expect a rising tide to lift all boats shall be disenchanted,” Ko told Cointelegraph. “We expect there shall be no traditional off-season; as a substitute, liquidity shall be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to surviving blue-chip firms with real adoption.”
Ko expected “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” tempered by differing central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to M2 money supply growth “has weakened since ETF launches in 2024, with the correlation decreasing.”
He added that the corporate “in the bottom case, assumes Bitcoin is aiming for a goal of $180,000 by 2026.”
However, not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting one other protracted bear market.
Bitcoin will reach the following peak in 2029
Brandt, a veteran futures trader, said Tuesday that Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale in 15 years, followed by at the least 80 percent declines, however the “current cycle shouldn’t be yet complete.”
However, when asked in regards to the bottom of this cycle, he predicted “the following bull market top in September 2029.”
The prediction would line up perfectly with the four-year cycle theory and peak a yr after the halving, expected around April 2028. However, an 80% drop like previous cycles could see BTC fall back to $25,000 before that happens.
Bitcoin's five parabolic advances. Source: Peter Brandt
Is the four-year cycle dead?
Historically, the fourth quarter of the yr has often been one in all Bitcoin's strongest periods. Eight of the last 12 fourth quarters saw Bitcoin's largest quarterly gains, in line with Coinglass, and only one in all those was a single-digit gain.
However, Bitcoin is down greater than 22% in the present quarter, marking the second-worst fourth quarter in history.
Macro investing feed Milk Road said on Monday: “This often means the market has eliminated numerous excess risk and weak positioning.”
“So this doesn’t robotically guarantee an uptrend in 2026, but historically cycles that end with a robust reset are inclined to provide higher conditions to construct strength.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at around $88,000, down 30% from its all-time high in October.
