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The cryptocurrency market has had a 12 months of ups and downs, with most major digital assets showing mixed performances in 2025. After a difficult begin to the 12 months, things began to look up for Bitcoin's price within the second and third quarters, because it hit several all-time highs within the six-month period.
However, the flagship cryptocurrency has had major problems in the ultimate months of 2025 and is anticipated to finish the 12 months within the red. Interestingly, the most recent on-chain data and historical patterns suggest that the value of Bitcoin may very well be set for a significantly stronger end to the 12 months than expected.
There aren’t any more negative days in 2025, but a deep correction could occur in 2026
On Saturday, December sixth, Joao Wedson, CEO and founding father of Alphractal, used the X platform to share what to anticipate from Bitcoin price in the ultimate days of 2025. According to the on-chain expert, the market leader is prone to end the 12 months in a sideways price range.
The relevant metric here is the Yearly Accumulated Negative Days, which measures market resilience by measuring the variety of days in a 12 months on which an asset's each day price candle closed within the red.
According to historical data and patterns, Bitcoin typically experiences a mean of 170 days of negative price motion per 12 months. This mean or average level provides information in regards to the stress threshold for the biggest cryptocurrency on the earth by market capitalization.
Source: @joao_wedson on X
As the variety of negative days approaches or exceeds this 170-day threshold, as is already the case for Bitcoin in 2025, selling pressure available in the market tends to ease as bear fatigue sets in. Wedson revealed that the leading cryptocurrency has already gathered 171 negative days up to now in 2025.
The on-chain expert noted that crossing this threshold “strongly suggests” that the value of Bitcoin may not experience any more negative days in the ultimate weeks of 2025. Wedson said a deeper correction for the market leader would almost certainly occur next 12 months.
However, because the founding father of Alphractal identified, it’s more likely that Bitcoin price will end the 12 months inside a consolidation range. The lack of market demand, evidenced by the reduced capital inflow into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, lends further credence to this assumption.
Bitcoin price at a look
As of this writing, the value of BTC is around $89,397, down just 0.3% within the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC within the each day timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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