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At crypto events, talk of quantum computers now not seems like science fiction. At a recent developer meeting at ETH Denver, engineers and security researchers turned their attention to a straightforward but troubling query: What happens to Bitcoin when a robust quantum machine comes online?
New proposals are reportedly being incorporated into the network's improvement process, laying the muse for early mitigation measures before an actual crisis occurs.
Quantum Computing: Why Hashing Isn't the Biggest Fear
Hashing – what miners and plenty of parts of the system use – becomes only barely faster with quantum tricks. According to Lov Grover's work, a quantum search method ends in a square root acceleration that changes the protection margins but doesn’t eliminate them.
In plain English, current models would require huge, perhaps unrealistic machines to crack hashes on a big scale.
Signatures are at real risk
Signatures are reportedly the largest concern. “What we're nervous about over the subsequent five years is signatures, and that goes for Shor too,” BIP 360 co-author Hunter Beast said throughout the ETH meeting in Denver.
The math behind most wallets today relies on elliptic curves, and Peter Shor showed how a quantum machine could reverse that math.
This way, a public key could reveal a personal key once the correct hardware is in place. A blockchain security firm has been tracking addresses which have already exposed their public keys, and the number will not be small.
Blockchain cybersecurity firm Project Eleven's list points to hundreds of thousands of coins that might be in danger if an attacker had a big enough quantum device.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,715. Chart: TradingView
How close are we?
The estimates are changing. Older works estimate the resources required to be in the various hundreds of thousands of qubits. Recent research from groups like Iceberg Quantum suggests the number could possibly be much lower, perhaps within the six figures.
Still, the raw qubit numbers only tell a part of the story. What matters is what number of “logical” qubits you possibly can run with acceptable error rates, how long calculations take, and whether the machine can remain stable for that point.
Laboratory steps taken by large corporations are also necessary; For example, Google has reported progress on bug fixes that many found encouraging. That doesn't mean the collapse is imminent, however it changes risk models.
Where the industry stands
Teams are reportedly forming to survey and construct defenses. The Ethereum Foundation has a post-quantum group and major exchanges and corporations take part in the discussions.
Coinbase has appointed consultants and its CEO Brian Armstrong said the issue could possibly be solved through planning. It was “solvable,” he said.
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