Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) went through one of the vital aggressive sales periods on record in 2025. While the magnitude of the selling rattled the market, on-chain data evaluation suggests that this pressure could also be easing, potentially heralding the subsequent bullish phase for BTC price.
Key Takeaways:
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Long-term holders distributed about $300 billion in BTC in 2025, representing a historic supply decline.
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Heavy LTH selling occurred near cycle tops or during structural transitions, not at first of latest downtrends.
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As selling pressure eases, the subsequent phase could rely upon how soon the availability of long-term holders stabilizes.
A historic decline supported Bitcoin's volatility in 2025
The amount of Bitcoin (BTC), which had remained stationary for at the very least two years, moved sharply on-chain in 2025. Nearly $300 billion price of Bitcoin, which had been dormant for over a yr, got here back into circulation. The 30 days from November 15 to December 14, 2025 marked considered one of the best distribution periods for long-term holders in greater than five years.
Bitcoin LTH Accumulation/Distribution Offer 30 Day Change. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
Since 2019, a pointy decline in long-term holder (LTH) supply has rarely occurred in isolation. They have appeared during phases where Bitcoin's trend was already under pressure, either near exhaustion or in a structural change.
In 2018, LTH supply fell from 13 million to 12 million BTC, with sales intensity peaking when the 30-day distribution reached 1.08 million BTC in December. At this point, Bitcoin had already been declining for months. The price bottomed out at around $3,500 in February 2019 before stabilizing and rising to $11,000 by mid-year. This highlights how strong LTH selling could precede the recovery reasonably than mark its end.
The 2020-2021 cycle was different. LTH supply fell from 13.7 million BTC to 11.65 million BTC, while Bitcoin price rose from $14,000 to $61,000. The 30-day distribution peak of 891,000 BTC didn’t immediately stop the rally.
Instead, the selling continued as prices rose, and the upward momentum steadily faded before the cycle eventually overturned. This is a reminder that LTH distribution can accompany expansion before defining its limits.
Bitcoin LTH flow. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
During the 2024-2025 bull market, the availability fell from 15.8 million BTC to 14.5 million BTC, with the 30-day distribution peaking at 758,000 BTC. The price reached a slight peak in early March, and each metrics then moved sideways within the second to 3rd quarters, confirming a well-known pattern: price strength tends to weaken as long-term holders increase their distribution.
The final phase in mid-to-late 2025 proved more abrupt. LTH supply briefly rallied to fifteen.4 million BTC in June before plunging to 13.5 million BTC in December, the biggest decline on record.
Price weakness occurred in October, but many of the selling got here later, with the biggest ever 30-day distribution peak of 1.14 million BTC in November. This sequence suggests capitulation reasonably than orderly profit-taking and marks a restart reasonably than a continuation of the previous trend.
Which could signal the pause in sales
LTH supply has not fallen since December and is currently around $13.6 million, while Bitcoin has entered a sideways movement. Additional confirmation comes from the ratio of the long-term/short-term holder offer.
Every time this ratio falls to -0.5 or below, Bitcoin has either entered a period of base constructing or has reached latest highs in a matter of weeks. In December, the ratio fell to around -0.53, after which price volatility decreased and momentum stalled, representing more of a reset than a continuation of the trend.
Bitcoin LTH/STH supply ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
Therefore, this mixture of aggressive distribution and subsequent supply stabilization has historically marked transition phases reasonably than trend continuation. If the trend repeats, the Q1-Q2 consolidation could function a period of base constructing, with a sustained recovery becoming more likely later, perhaps within the third quarter.
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