As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and major stock indexes, investors are increasingly wondering whether this cycle is unfolding in another way than expected. In a brand new interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we explore why Bitcoin is lagging traditional markets and why the present situation could feel strikingly just like 2019.
Cowen points out that while stocks and gold respond positively to expectations of future monetary easing, Bitcoin is much more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions than simply optimism.
This distinction, he explains, helps illustrate why BTC is struggling to realize momentum at the same time as broader markets push higher. According to Cowen, Bitcoin often needs a clearer macroeconomic catalyst before it might probably outperform, and that catalyst is probably not in place yet.
A central topic of the discussion is the mood. Unlike previous cycle peaks that were characterised by widespread retail enthusiasm and speculation, this market was characterised by relative apathy.
Cowen explains why it’s unusual for Bitcoin to rise to the highest in a low-profile environment and the way this difference could influence the trail forward over the following few years.
The conversation also touches on the controversy concerning the four-year cycle. While many commentators argue that Bitcoin's historical cycle framework is not any longer relevant, Cowen presents data suggesting that broader market cycles, and not only crypto-specific narratives, still play a very important role.
He explains why macroeconomic headwinds, including labor market trends and tight financial conditions, could proceed to weigh on Bitcoin through 2026, even when there are short-term rallies along the way in which.
Instead of specializing in exact price targets, the interview focuses on the method quite than the forecast. How investors can take into consideration cycles, risk and patience in an environment where easy liquidity will not be guaranteed. Cowen also briefly addresses what this implies for altcoins and why expectations of rapid rotations could also be misplaced.
Watch the total interview on Cointelegraph's YouTube channel to listen to Cowen's full reasoning, charts, and the deeper macroeconomic context behind his outlook.
