According to analysts, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a record low against gold (XAU) in January, making it a greater buying opportunity than before the 2015-2017 bull market.
Key insights:
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BTC vs. Gold hit a record low, a level consistent with previous major lows.
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Some analysts warn that a rotation from gold to BTC just isn’t guaranteed.
The gold-to-Bitcoin rotation could begin in February
On Saturday, the worth of Bitcoin fell to its lowest ever in comparison with gold when taking into consideration the worldwide money supply, data from Bitwise Europe showed.
The indicator shows when Bitcoin is unusually strong or weak against gold. It has now moved near an extreme zone (the -2 mark within the chart below) that has historically occurred around BTC market lows.
BTC/XAU Z-score ratio. Source: Bithwesy
The last time this range fell to an identical level was in 2015, suggesting extreme undervaluation of BTC relative to gold. This followed an 11,800% BTC price increase to $20,000 from around $165 in only two years. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said in a Saturday X post:
“Today is a greater opportunity to purchase Bitcoin than in 2017.”
His comments were in keeping with analysts who expect some capital to shift from gold to Bitcoin this yr.
These include Bitwise's European head of research André Dragosch and Swyftx senior analyst Pav Hundal. The latter said such rotations could begin in February or March.
Capital rotation “may not occur quickly”
The bullish views got here to light as gold prices doubled last yr, while Bitcoin fell 18% over the identical period.
XAU/USD vs BTC/USD. Source: TradingView
But not everyone agreed that a rotation from precious metals to Bitcoin is imminent, including analyst Benjamin Cowen.
He said Bitcoin's downtrend could last more than many holders expect, arguing that BTC “will likely proceed to weaken against the stock market” and that hopes of a “massive rotation” out of gold and silver may very well be misplaced within the near term.
Citi said silver could extend gains in the subsequent few months on account of demand from China and a weaker U.S. dollar. Likewise, RBC Capital Markets predicted that gold prices will reach $7,000 by the top of 2026.
Cowen said even when precious metals remain strong, entry into Bitcoin “is unlikely to occur quickly.”
Long-term Bitcoin holders absorb January sell-off
Despite Bitcoin's sharp decline in January, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are quietly rebuilding their positions.
The supply of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH), entities that hold BTC for greater than 155 days, began to get well throughout the January sell-off.
Binary spending indicator for Bitcoin LTH. Source: CheckOnChain.COM
The LTH Spent Binary, a metric that shows whether long-term Bitcoin holders are selling or staying, also continued to say no during this era.
According to analyst Anil, in past cycles, the recovery in LTH supply and the decline within the issued LTH binary preceded the formation of everlasting BTC bottoms.
A recent example got here after the April 2025 lows: first, the availability of long-term holders began to get well, and BTC rebounded significantly a few month later, recovering about 60% from the lows.
These trends suggest that an increasing number of patient holders are profiting from BTC's January price drop, often the type of reset that helps Bitcoin construct a stronger base for future gains.
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