Key Takeaways:
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The BTC futures premium remained near 5%, showing that leverage demand was not affected after the failed breakout attempt from $98,000.
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Bitcoin ETFs saw $395 million in outflows as gold hit recent records, weakening the appeal of hedging trades and pushing traders to cost in downside risks.
Bitcoin (BTC) suffered a 3.4% correction over the weekend as investors reduced risk after global socio-political tensions rose and China reported its slowest economic growth since 2022.
The retest of $92,000 caught bulls by surprise as $215 million price of leveraged BTC futures long positions (buys) were forcibly liquidated, fueling concerns that a deeper price correction may very well be underway.
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Nasdaq index futures traded lower on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced additional import tariffs for eight European countries geared toward advancing negotiations to take over Greenland, a territory controlled by Denmark. According to Yahoo Finance, European nations are currently discussing retaliation against US product imports.
Weak BTC derivatives indicate waning interest and hedging appeal
Investors sought safety in money positions and precious metals as U.S. markets remained closed on Monday for a national holiday. The Euronext 100 index fell 1.6% while gold prices rose above $4,650 for the primary time. Although Bitcoin quickly reclaimed the $93,000 mark, the broader market continues to view cryptocurrencies as dangerous assets moderately than alternative hedges.
Base rate of interest for Bitcoin futures. Source: laevitas.ch
The annual premium (base rate) of Bitcoin futures hovered near the neutral to bearish level of 5%, suggesting that demand for leveraged bullish positions was not affected by Wednesday's failed try to reclaim $98,000. Still, the dearth of enthusiasm in BTC derivatives markets could indicate waning interest from institutional investors.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $395 million in net outflows on Friday, further weighing on trader sentiment. As gold and silver prices reach all-time highs, Bitcoin's appeal as a hedging instrument appears less compelling. In response, skilled traders demanded higher premiums to guard themselves from losses.
BTC 30 Day Options Delta Skew (Put Call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
The delta skew of BTC options on Deribit rose to eight%, suggesting that put (sell) options are trading at a premium. In neutral market conditions, this indicator is usually between -6% and +6%. As a result, the recent Bitcoin price drop has reduced whales’ confidence in a bullish breakout above $100,000. Macroeconomic aspects proceed to dominate headlines and in turn influence traders' risk appetite.
George Saravelos, head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, noted that “European countries own $8 trillion price of U.S. bonds and stocks, almost twice as much as the remainder of the world combined,” while the U.S. fiscal imbalance is dependent upon continued capital inflows. As a result, Europe may not be “as willing” to support the US dollar if the “Western alliance” is fundamentally disrupted.
China's economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the ultimate quarter of 2025, compared with 4.8% within the previous quarter. Strong exports helped offset weaker consumer spending and business investment, in line with the Associated Press. Analysts warn that consumer stimulus measures introduced in 2025 may very well be scaled back, while a worldwide trade war could weigh on exports.
Daily energetic addresses of the Bitcoin network. Source: Nansen
Declining Bitcoin network activity can be a priority, as healthy blockchain demand is important to supporting mining investments. Bitcoin miner revenue consists of a set block reward of three,125 BTC plus transaction fees. According to Nansen, the variety of day by day energetic addresses fell to 370,800, a decline of 13% from two weeks earlier.
Given the weakness in BTC derivatives metrics, there are few signs that the $92,000 level shall be sustained as investors remain wary of a worldwide economic slowdown and the impact of the Trump administration's goal of owning Greenland and its current involvement in Venezuela.
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