According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, Bitcoin can deliver stable returns over the following decade, but exceptionally large year-over-year gains are unlikely.
“I feel we're in a 10-year upward spiral with strong returns. They're not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some ups and downs,” Hougan said on CNBC Friday.
Hougan stands by his prediction that 2026 can be a positive 12 months for Bitcoin (BTC). He first shared this outlook in July, before Bitcoin hit a brand new all-time high of $125,100 in October. “I feel it would be next 12 months,” Hougan said.
“Slow Institutional Buying” Protects Bitcoin’s Downside
Meanwhile, ReserveOne Chief Investment Officer Sebastian Beau said it remains to be unclear whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is “dead.” “The all-time high was 125,000, that was in early October, today we're at $87,000, a comparatively quick 30% drop, pretty painful,” Beau said.
Market participants are divided on whether the cycle is over. The timing of Bitcoin's October peaks mirrors past four-year cycle peaks, suggesting a possible downturn 12 months in 2026.
Hougan said the “fast-moving retail crowd” was one among the explanations for Bitcoin’s end-of-year decline as retail investors migrated “in anticipation of this four-year cycle.”
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at $87,818 on the time of publication, down 3.81% over the past 30 days.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan appeared on CNBC on Friday. Source: CNBC
Hougan said Bitcoin fell 30% on account of “sustained, slow institutional buying,” as a substitute of the 60% seen in previous cycles.
However, some analysts remain cautious. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as little as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
The Trump administration is unlikely to have a serious impact on Bitcoin price
Bitcoin began 2025 by hitting recent all-time highs near $109,000 following the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president, which was widely seen as a catalyst for the asset's rally earlier within the 12 months.
However, Hougan said the Trump administration is unlikely to supply way more upside for Bitcoin price. “There’s not way more they’ll do for Bitcoin,” Hougan said, pointing to clearer regulatory positioning for the asset.
Beau took the same view. “We comprehend it is a commodity asset and the SEC has outlined that,” he said.
