Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin's rise above $97,000 is failing to be confirmed in derivatives markets, with options bias signaling caution over a sustained recovery.
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Geopolitical risks, falling government bond yields and weakening stocks are reinforcing a risk aversion that continues to limit Bitcoin's upside potential.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose to its highest level in greater than 60 days after posting a 5.5% rise on Wednesday. The move followed $840 million in inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Monday and Tuesday. Given Bitcoin’s bullish trend, are further gains towards $105,000 likely within the near term?
Nasdaq index futures (left) vs. BTC/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin's surge toward $97,000 contrasts with continued weakness within the tech-heavy Nasdaq index, which has repeatedly failed to succeed in the extent of $26,000 last seen in early November 2025. Investor sentiment stays mixed with Bitcoin still trading 23% below its all-time high of $126,219, while gold and silver prices hit record highs in 2026, signaling greater interest in traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin 30 Day Options Delta Skew (Put Call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch
According to the BTC options delta skew metric, skilled traders should not yet optimistic as put (sell) options proceed to trade at a premium. BTC options delta skew is currently at 4%, unchanged from the week before, indicating a stable risk perception despite the rally above $96,000 on Wednesday. Traders remain skeptical about sustained gains above $100,000.
Bitcoin’s upside is restricted by increasing socio-political concerns
When whales and market makers turn into bullish, the skew typically turns negative, reflecting increased demand for neutral to bullish options strategies. Instead, Bitcoin bears were caught off guard when the recent price surge resulted in $370 million in leveraged short (sell) position liquidations in two days, the very best total since October 2025.
BTC Futures 12 Hour Liquidations, USD. Source: CoinGlass
Some of the shortage of optimism could also be related to geopolitical tensions after protests in Iran led to military threats from US President Donald Trump, including a possible additional 25% import tariff on countries “doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Investors fear that US relations with China and India could deteriorate if the proposal is implemented.
Investor confidence has also been pressured by the Trump administration's intention to seize control of Greenland. Trump has argued that Denmark's self-governing territory is critical to U.S. national security. According to Politico, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has offered help to Denmark within the event of a hostile takeover.
Yield on two-year US Treasury bonds. Source: TradingView
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to three.51% on Wednesday, suggesting traders are accepting lower yields in exchange for the security of government-backed bonds. This is especially telling provided that probably the most recent US consumer price inflation index (CPI) was 2.7% year-on-year, above the Federal Reserve's goal. I bet
Warren Buffett, chairman and former CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, reportedly warned that the shortage of clarity concerning the future direction of artificial intelligence is worrying. Because of that caution, Berkshire's money pile rose to a record $381.7 billion, up from $170 billion a 12 months earlier.
The Nasdaq index fell 1.6% while shares of Oracle (ORCL US) fell 5% after bondholders filed a category motion lawsuit alleging the corporate did not disclose the necessity for significant additional debt to expand its artificial intelligence infrastructure.
As uncertainty increases, traders have reduced their exposure to stocks, indicating a lower risk tolerance that can also be limiting appetite for cryptocurrencies.
It stays unclear whether Bitcoin has finally ended its two-month bear market, but derivatives data shows that traders remain extremely skeptical of a fast recovery towards $105,000. For now, investors' focus stays on the broader sociopolitical risks and whether the Federal Reserve can support economic growth without reigniting inflation.
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