Key Takeaways:
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BTC open interest falls to $34 billion, but stable BTC-denominated volume suggests leverage demand stays unchanged.
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Weak US jobs data and a Bitcoin options bias point to a bearish move, at the same time as gold and stocks show relative strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has struggled to keep up levels above $72,000 over the past week, leading investors to query whether institutional demand has evaporated. Total open interest in Bitcoin futures fell to its lowest level since November 2024, fueling fears of a retest of $60,000 support amid growing uncertainty.
Total open interest in BTC futures, USD. Source: CoinGlass
Total open interest in BTC futures reached $34 billion on Thursday, down 28% from 30 days earlier. However, when measured in Bitcoin, the metric stays virtually unchanged at 502,450 BTC, suggesting that demand for leverage has not likely declined. Part of this decline can also be resulting from forced liquidations, which totaled $5.2 billion over the past two weeks.
Weak bullish leverage demand confirms BTC’s worrying market decoupling
Investors are increasingly frustrated by the shortage of a transparent trigger for Bitcoin's 28% decline last month, especially as gold reclaimed the psychological $5,000 mark and the S&P 500 traded just 1% below its all-time high. Some analysts argue that this risk aversion is resulting from emerging signs of weakness within the US labor market.
The U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday that the U.S. economy added just 181,000 jobs in 2025, a figure weaker than previously reported. However, the White House has downplayed these concerns. According to the BBC, officials argue that the slowdown in population growth resulting from its immigration policies has reduced the variety of jobs the US must create.
US weekly initial jobless claims (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin's record-breaking 52% crash on March 13, 2020 occurred at the peak of fears over the COVID-19 pandemic, which expected a surge in jobless claims. If economic growth is currently in danger, there may be an excellent likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates of interest before expected. This reduces firms' cost of capital and eases financing conditions for consumers, which explains the strength of the stock market in 2026.
The lack of trust in Bitcoin is highlighted by the weak demand for bullish leveraged positions, making the decoupling from traditional markets much more worrisome.
Annualized funding rate for Bitcoin futures. Source: Laevitas.ch
The annualized funding rate for Bitcoin futures has remained below the neutral threshold of 12% over the past 4 months, an indication of fear. Even though the indicator has recovered from the negative values of the previous week, the bears still have the upper hand. According to Bitcoin options markets, skilled traders remain unwilling to take the chance of a price decline.
BTC 30 Day Options Delta Skew (Put Call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The BTC options delta skew on Deribit rose to 22% on Thursday as put (sell) instruments traded at a premium. Under normal circumstances, the indicator must be between -6% and +6%, reflecting balanced risk aversion to the upside and downside. This skew metric last turned bullish in May 2025 after Bitcoin regained $93,000 after retesting $75,000.
While derivatives metrics reflect weakness, the $5.4 billion average every day trading volume in U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contradicts speculation that institutional demand is waning. While it’s not possible to predict what is going to cause buyers to point out strength, Bitcoin's recovery likely hinges on improved visibility into U.S. labor market conditions.
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