Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be the loser in comparison with gold as the valuable metal hits latest all-time highs on Monday.
Key points:
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The evaluation concludes that Bitcoin just isn’t trading down after years of losses against gold.
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While precious metals are hitting all-time highs, BTC price just isn’t recovering.
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Gold is beginning to put pressure on the S&P 500, potentially changing a narrative that has been around for years if it continues to rise.
BTC depreciation trading: “The narrative is broken”
A brand new evaluation by Karel Mercx, an investment specialist at Dutch investment consultancy Beleggers Belangen, says Bitcoin has failed as a “devaluation trade.”
According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin slipped below 20 ounces of gold in the beginning of 2026 and is now circling two-year lows.
As markets react to the US government's actions against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, gold and silver proceed to enjoy price discovery while Bitcoin falters.
While bulls are hoping that BTC/USD will catch up soon, the signs for Mercx have been evident for a very long time.
“The verdict is in: the devaluation trade is about gold and silver, not Bitcoin,” he told X Followers in a post on Monday.
“A frontal attack on the Fed sends metals to latest highs while BTC is 20% below its peak.” BTC/XAU weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Mercx pushed back on the concept Bitcoin is a lovely goal for investors searching for protection from the dilution of the availability of fiat currencies – also often known as “devaluation trading.”
Regardless of how Bitcoin performs as “digital gold” in comparison with gold bullion, actual capital flows suggest demand for the latter.
“The narrative is broken,” he continued.
“Investors prefer the unique hard money to the digital experiment. Book closed.”
The obituaries for the Bitcoin price cycle are increasing
The sense of urgency continues to grow amongst crypto advocates.
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe addressed the subject and admitted that point for a market recovery could also be running out.
Times are beginning to get interesting for everybody involved within the #cryptomarkets.
Gold has reached a brand new all-time high.
Silver has reached a brand new all-time high.
My concern: This breakout really must speed up or we'll crash again and the downtrend… pic.twitter.com/55VsW2UyuT
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 12, 2026
As for stocks, crypto market commentator Benjamin Cowen called gold's performance against the S&P 500 “one of the essential charts at once.”
“If SPX collapses against gold, the environment we now have been in for the last decade will completely change,” he argued on the monthly chart.
One-month chart S&P 500 vs. gold. Source: Benjamin Cowen/X
Last September, Mercx declared Bitcoin's four-year price cycle “dead” – a narrative that has grown in popularity ever since.
“$BTC gold price shows each cycle is weaker than the last, and now the primary 4-year loss,” he wrote on the time.
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