Bitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed activity on Thursday as Bitcoin price turned away from its intraday high of $68,300. Analysts said Bitcoin continues to capitulate, which could push the value lower and potentially bottom in the ultimate quarter of 2026.
Key Takeaways:
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Several on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin is in deep capitulation as downside risks remain.
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The change in holders' long-term net position shows an extreme distribution and reflects past corrections that preceded an extra downtrend before the lows.
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Analysts predict that BTC price will bottom within the fourth quarter of 2026 based on various technical and on-chain metrics.
Bitcoin’s capitulation continues
Bitcoin's 46% decline from its all-time high of $126,000 has put pressure on a good portion of holders, and data shows they at the moment are reducing their exposure.
Glassnode's long-term holder (LTH) net position change shows that Bitcoin held by these investors over 30 days declined by 245,000 BTC on February 6, representing a cycle-relative extreme within the day by day distribution. Since then, this cohort of investors has reduced their exposure by a median of 170,000 BTC, as shown within the chart below.
Similar spikes in LTH net position change occurred during correction phases in 2019 and mid-2021, causing BTC price to consolidate before an prolonged downtrend.
Change in the online position of long-term Bitcoin holders. Source: Glassnode
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-day window) fell to -2.66, increasing the intensity of sell-side pressure.
“The current Z-Score value of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin stays permanently within the capitulation zone,” said CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain in a quicktake post on Thursday, adding:
“The indicator suggests we’re approaching the historical accumulation phase.” 
BTC: MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365 day window). Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin's realized profit/loss ratio is on the verge of falling below 1, a level that has historically been related to “a broad-based capitulation where realized losses exceed profit-taking out there,” Glassnode said.
Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode
Analysts expect Bitcoin to bottom towards the top of 2026
According to several analyses, Bitcoin could proceed its downward trend and should only reach $40,000 to $50,000 within the last quarter of the yr.
“The final capitulation to $BTC is yet to come back,” crypto analyst Tony Research said in a recent post on X, adding:
“I expect BTC to bottom at $40,000 to $50,000, which can almost definitely form between mid-September and late November 2026.” 
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Tony Research
Crypto analyst Titan said previous bear cycles in 2018 and 2022 bottomed twelve months after the height of the bull market.
Bitcoin's current all-time high of over $126,000 was reached on October 2, 2025.
“If this cycle follows the identical rhythm, the underside can be around October,” the analyst added.
On-Chain College shared a chart showing that Bitcoin's net realized losses reached an extreme level of $13.6 billion on February 7, a level last seen throughout the 2022 bear market.
“The 2022 loss peak occurred five months before the actual bear market bottom was printed,” the analyst said, suggesting that BTC could form a bottom in July 2026.
Realized Bitcoin Net Gain/Loss, USD. Source: Checkonchain
As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market yr, and various forecasts predict a decline in BTC price to as little as $40,000.
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