Bitcoin on-chain evaluation envisioned a possible end to the downtrend in BTC price because the MVRV ratio returned to levels not seen in three years.
Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing “undervalued” territory for the primary time in three years as a classic indicator nears its turning point.
Key points:
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Research shows that Bitcoin has not been this “undervalued” relative to its market cap since March 2023.
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The MVRV ratio is approaching its key breakeven level for the primary time in over three years.
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MVRV evaluation believes that Bitcoin is within the technique of reversing its downward trend.
The Bitcoin value metric reflects the value of $20,000
Research released on Friday by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows key developments in Bitcoin's market value to realized value ratio (MVRV).
As a classic BTC price measure, the MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to the value at which supply last moved, also referred to as the “realized cap.”
Values below 1 mean that the offer is undervalued at current prices. Last week, as BTC/USD fell below $60,000, MVRV hit 1.13 – its lowest level since March 2023, when it traded at just $20,000.
“After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for about 4 months and is now approaching an area that may be considered undervalued,” commented CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan.
“When the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is mostly considered to be undervalued. Currently, the indicator is around 1.1, indicating that the value level is approaching the undervalued region.” Bitcoin MVRV ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The MVRV was last below 1 in early 2023. At the time of Bitcoin's most up-to-date all-time high last October, the ratio peaked at 2.28.
Crypto Dan questioned the validity of Bitcoin's 52% decline from its all-time high. Neither the highest nor the underside are characteristic of typical MVRV behavior, he argued.
“However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin didn’t experience a pointy rise right into a significantly overvalued zone in probably the most recent bull cycle,” the research paper continued.
“This distinction is essential to acknowledge. Therefore, the present decline may differ from previous market lows and it appears needed to reply taking this possibility into consideration.” 
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Price Bottom Is “Currently Faked”
In January, Cointelegraph reported early signs that BTC price motion could possibly be preparing for a trend reversal.
On rolling two-year time frames, the MVRV ratio Z-score, which divides its values by the usual deviation of market capitalization, recently fell to historic lows.
“$BTC’s current Z-Score is lower than it was in the course of the bear market bottoms in 2015, 2018, the 2020 COVID crash, and 2022,” noted crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on the time.
This week, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain used one other Z-Score iteration to point out that BTC/USD was in a “give up zone.”
“The indicator suggests that we’re approaching the historical accumulation phase,” he wrote in an accompanying post.
“The Z-score statistical deviation screams opportunity and signals that the underside of this downtrend is about to be reached.” 
Bitcoin MVRV Adaptive Z-Score data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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