Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, causing BTC to lose its 100-week moving average for the primary time since October 2023. Analysts at the moment are considering whether the move marks the early stages of a bear market and what this shift could mean for Bitcoin's recovery in the long run.
Key Takeaways:
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Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 100-week easy moving average, a trend related to multi-month drawdowns.
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Previous bearish breakouts below the weekly trend lasted between 182 and 532 days.
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High spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 could turn this level into major resistance.
Bitcoin is slipping below a long-term weekly trend
Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 100-week easy moving average (SMA), which is around $87,500. This marks the lack of a key macro trend level for BTC.
Crypto advocate Brett identified that, apart from the COVID-19 flash crash in 2020, Bitcoin has been below the 100-week SMA for an prolonged time period. In the 2014-2015 cycle, BTC remained below this level for 357 days as prices fluctuated between $200 and $600 after the 2013 bull market high.
Bitcoin days below the 100W SMA. Source: Brett/X
In 2018-2019, this era lasted 182 days and coincided with the bear market bottom between $3,000 and $6,000.
In 2022, Bitcoin was below the 100-week SMA for 532 days after the FTX plunge, consolidating between $16,000 and $25,000.
Each fall resulted in an accumulation phase relatively than a fast recovery, suggesting that point could once more be the important thing factor ahead of the subsequent bullish phase.
USDT dominance and resistance at $85,000 increase bear market risk
Crypto analyst Sherlock said a bear market could emerge after the USDT dominance chart recorded a weekly close above 7.2%. In past cycles, a detailed above 6.7% confirmed bearish conditions, which is why the newest breakout, the primary in greater than two and a half years, is especially significant.
USDT dominance chart evaluation by Sherlock. Source: X
The analyst highlighted $85,000 as a key resistance zone. In the fourth quarter of 2025, greater than $120 billion in spot volume traded between $85,000 and $95,000, putting pressure on many BTC holders. With BTC near $78,000, any rally towards $85,000 could face regular selling pressure as traders could look to exit at breakeven, with the realized price currently at $91,500 for one- to three-month holders.
Bitcoin realized the value by cohorts of 1 to three million holders. Source: CryptoQuant
BTC’s fractal structure levels are declining starting in 2022
Bitcoin’s weekly structure shows similarities to the 2022 decline. At this point, BTC formed lower highs, lost the 100-week SMA and did not sustain the recovery before entering a deeper correction.
BTC/USDT 1-week chart with head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingView
An identical pattern is now visible in 2026. If the fractal continues, Bitcoin could return to the $40,000-$45,000 range, a longtime demand zone. While fractals usually are not predictive, the setup suggests that downside risk stays elevated unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims the 100-week SMA.
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