Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $86,000 on Monday and continued to expand on liquidity imbalance as smaller participants continued to purchase on dips. However, large holders are profiting from demand to exit their positions, maintaining downward pressure.
Key Takeaways:
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Retail and mid-sized Bitcoin wallets bought a complete of $474 million on the buy side, while whales sold $2.78 billion in the course of the same period.
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Short-term BTC holders continued to sell at a loss, an indication of capitulation, but a reversal was not confirmed.
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Bitcoin could retest its quarterly low of $80,600 after erasing its short-term uptrend.
Whales dominate the sell side as retail bottoms out
Order flow data from Hyblock Capital showed clear behavioral differences between participant classes. Retailers or wallets ($0-10,000) have gathered a cumulative volume delta of $169 million and are consistently bidding into the downtrend. Mid-sized participants ($1,000-$100,000) also built a net spot position of $305 million as they attempted to drive a recovery.
BTC price and volume delta (cumulative) between different wallet sizes. Source: Hyblock
However, whale wallets ($100,000 to $10 million) remain the dominant force with a cumulative volume delta of negative $2.78 billion. The combined purchasing power of outlets and mid-sized retailers is just not sufficient to soak up institutional-level distribution.
This creates a liquidity mismatch where smaller players interpret prices below $100,000 as a reduction, while large holders view the identical range as a chance to cut back exposure.
Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the short-term bearer issue winning ratio (7-day SMA) slipped below 1 and is currently hovering near 0.99. This suggests that, on average, coins held for lower than 155 days are sold at a loss.
In the past, such conditions were related to local capitulation periods where selling pressure peaked. However, Adler emphasized that stress alone is just not a signal of reversal. A sustained recovery can begin after the SOPR is back above 1, confirming that demand has began to soak up supply.
Bitcoin short term holds SOPR. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
Bitcoin is poised to re-examine lower liquidity targets
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's structure has continued to weaken. BTC price has broken out of a rising wedge pattern and broke through the monthly VWAP (volume weighted average price) before recording a bearish structural break (BOS) below $87,600.
Bitcoin four-hour chart evaluation. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With the short-term uptrend invalidated, BTC now faces downside targets near previous liquidity pools or external liquidity.
Immediate targets remain the swing low of $83,800, with a deeper pullback towards quarterly lows of $80,600 possible if selling pressure continues. Currently, each order flow and on-chain signals suggest that patience is required before a everlasting bottom is reached.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be responsible for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to supply accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be responsible for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
