Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) saw one other rally on Monday amid a difficult market environment for BTC and digital assets basically.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs (BTC) recorded around $562 million in inflows, breaking a four-day outflow streak. According to data from SoSoValue, $1.5 billion in outflows were recorded last week.
Despite the uptrend, analysts warned that ETFs and broader markets will likely face continued pressure from institutional selling and macroeconomic uncertainty, with near-term support potentially remaining at an ETF cost basis level of $84,000.
According to CoinGecko, the inflows got here as Bitcoin rebounded on Monday after briefly falling below $75,000 over the weekend and rising to an intraday high above $79,000.
Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $1 billion year-to-date
The $562 million in recent inflows represents a notable chunk of year-to-date outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which totaled $1 billion on Tuesday.
According to SoSoValue data, total outflows to date this 12 months have reached $4.6 billion, offsetting inflows of $3.6 billion.
Bitcoin ETF flows since January sixteenth. Source: SoSoValue
In contrast, Ether (ETH) ETFs didn’t record any inflows on Monday and saw minor outflows of $2.9 million.
The ETF flow cost basis is now underwater, says Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital
In addition to the outflows, Bitcoin's price has fallen below the ETF flow cost basis, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, said in a market update on X on Monday.
“BTC is currently trading 7.3% below the typical ETF creation cost basis ($84,000), even though it traded just 10% below that level on Saturday, January 31,” Thorn noted, adding:
“BTC has not traded below the typical ETF creation cost basis for the reason that summer and early fall of 2024, when it reached just -9.9%. It is cheap to assume that this level will function near-term support.”
Thorn also pointed to Bitcoin's realized price of $56,000, noting that BTC has historically found support “around or barely below” that level before a bull market.
Bitcoin key levels (realized price, 50-week moving average, 200-week moving average) since 2011. Source: Galaxy Research, Glassnode
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the market faces antagonistic capital flows, Bitcoin's decoupling from global money supply trends, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy given the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman.
“However, in the long run, the outlook stays constructive as structural concerns about currency depreciation remain and the present lag behind liquidity trends signals catch-up potential,” Butterfill added.
On Monday, CoinShares reported that crypto exchange-traded products lost one other $1.7 billion last week, doubling outflows from the previous week.
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