Bitcoin has entered its most historically significant month of gains – November – with a median increase of 42.51% since 2013, meaning that if history rhymes, Bitcoin could surpass $160,000 this month.
However, a crypto analyst noted that several macroeconomic aspects are also at play.
“While I consider seasonal charts are very essential, they have to be combined with many other aspects,” said crypto analyst Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
Looking ahead, the US Federal Reserve is predicted to further cut rates of interest and the US and China are working on a trade deal. Both developments may very well be favorable for Bitcoin. However, the federal government shutdown and US tariffs proceed to extend economic uncertainty.
Here's a breakdown of some key developments to keep watch over in the approaching weeks.
Trade tensions between the US and China are easing
A gathering between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was seen as a positive step towards ending US-China trade tensions.
Trump described the talks with the Chinese president in South Korea as “amazing.” The talks included an agreement by Trump to chop tariffs against China in return for Beijing restricting fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and lifting restrictions on rare earth exports for a 12 months.
Monthly Bitcoin returns since 2013. Source: CoinGlass
Trump told reporters he expects a trade cope with China “pretty soon.”
Trump's threat of tariffs against China has been blamed for the recent crypto crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated in only 24 hours on October 11. Since then, the crypto market has struggled to recuperate.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow on the China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting was more of a “pause” within the trade war, but was removed from over.
The US Federal Reserve desires to cut rates of interest and end quantitative tightening
Just a couple of days ago, Fed officials voted to chop rates of interest by one other quarter point, bringing the important thing rate of interest to its lowest level in three years.
The date for the subsequent Fed meeting is about for December 10, 2025. Data from CME's FedWatch – a tool that measures expectations for a rate change from the Federal Reserve – shows traders pricing in a rate cut with a 63% likelihood.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets on Wednesday by saying the move was “not a given.”
The Fed's rate cuts are seen as bullish for Bitcoin as lower borrowing costs up to now have encouraged investors to trade in riskier assets reminiscent of cryptocurrencies.
Added to that is the Federal Reserve's recent decision to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1st. QT is the means of reducing the central bank's balance sheet. The goal of QT is to chill an overheated economy and stop inflation from rising too quickly.
The opposite of this, quantitative easing, involves central banks injecting extra money into the economy and is seen pretty much as good for crypto because a few of that cash flows into alternative assets.
The government shutdown within the USA continues
The US government shutdown is about to enter its fifth week and is approaching the longest in US history, as US Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked over the federal government spending plan.
On Thursday, Trump called on Republicans to abolish the Senate filibuster rule, which allows a small group of senators to dam actions by the bulk he blames for the federal government shutdown.
“The alternative is evident – usher within the 'nuclear option,' eliminate the filibuster and make America great again!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
An end to the shutdown was seen as a mandatory step for the SEC to present the ultimate green light to several crypto ETFs, together with crucial progress on the crypto markets structure bill, also often known as the CLARITY Act.
