Bitcoin price evaluation remained bearish on the outlook for BTC, predicting latest macroeconomic lows in a repeat of the bear market in 2022.
Bitcoin (BTC) gained as much as 3% on Sunday, but some traders refused to imagine that the BTC price decline was over.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin price comparisons warn that latest macro lows are imminent if the bear market continues to repeat itself in 2022.
-
The focus is on moving averages and the price basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
-
The evaluation says a 2022 copy will not be a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”
Data from TradingView showed that BTC/USD broke above $71,000, up 20% from Friday's 15-month low.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As the weekly close approached, Bitcoin provided characteristic volatility while market participants remained highly skeptical that the recovery would proceed.
When uploading a chart to
“I’m not going to attempt to make it anything apart from what it looks like,” he commented alongside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Filbfilb/X
Analyst Tony Severino expressed similar views, providing multiple price indicators and concluding that latest lows are all but guaranteed.
Four more in your foresight https://t.co/psM23MQiI2 pic.twitter.com/Qu0Pt5QeUz
— Tony Severino, CMT (@TonySeverinoCMT) February 8, 2026
“The final capitulation of $BTC has not happened yet,” agreed the trader BitBull, as did Filbfilb, referring to 2022.
“An actual bottom will form below $50,000, where most ETF buyers will probably be underwater.” 
US Spot Bitcoin ETF Data. Source: Checkonchain
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs currently have a median buy-in price of $82,000, in accordance with data from monitoring resource Checkonchain.
The BTC price déjà vu continues
Previously, Cointelegraph reported a key bear market feature for Bitcoin based on two other trendlines: the 200-week easy average (SMA) and the exponential moving average.
Together they form a “cloud” of support between $58,000 and $68,000.
In one in all his latest market insights over the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics resource Cubic Analytics, argued that the spirit of 2022 is at play here too.
“In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls said, 'That's it, we retested the long-term moving average and may now proceed higher.' The price immediately recovered on this zone, creating an extended wick and shutting above the midpoint of the weekly range,” he summarized.
“But then that rally faded… Price returned to the 200W MA cloud just a few weeks later, didn’t get well, after which cut through the cloud in June 2022. What are we seeing? The first retest of the 200W MA cloud with an extended wick.” 
BTC/USD one-week chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Franzen notes that the market may not “perfectly” replicate the previous bear market.
“The reality is that nobody knows what is going to occur next,” he admitted.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision. While we try to offer accurate and up-to-date information, Cointelegraph doesn’t guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the knowledge in this text. This article may contain forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be accountable for any loss or damage arising out of your reliance on this information.
