Bitcoin's (BTC) risk-reward ratio has provided a rare bullish signal as several metrics turn green.
Key points:
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Bitcoin price metrics show multi-year opportunities on the subject of risk and reward.
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While this shouldn’t be a guarantee that the BTC price bottom has been reached, the opportunities have gotten “more attractive” for buyers.
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The data increasingly mimics the top of the bear market in 2022.
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirmed multi-year lows for Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio.
Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Gives Bulls Hope
Bitcoin is more attractive as a bet by way of risk and reward than at any time since mid-2023.
The Sharpe ratio, a classic economic tool for assessing the investment risk of an asset, has entered the “green” zone below zero for the primary time since June of the identical yr.
“We at the moment are entering the identical zone as 2019, 2020 and 2022, periods wherein the Sharpe ratio was at structurally low levels for some time before recent multi-month trends emerged,” CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV wrote in one among his Quicktake blog posts.
“This shouldn’t be a guarantee of a bottom, however it does suggest that the standard of future returns is starting to enhance, assuming the market stabilizes and volatility begins to normalize.” Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Sharpe tends to trend deeper into negative territory before a reversal occurs, bringing the value with it. Its last long-term bottom was reached in November 2022, about two months before the top of the last crypto bear market.
Moreno due to this fact suggested that the metric would must reverse upwards before users could breathe a sigh of relief.
“Bitcoin shouldn’t be signaling a trend recovery yet, however it is signaling that the risk-adjusted landscape for futures returns is becoming more attractive,” he emphasized.
Bitcoin Heater returns in 2022
Elsewhere, one other popular BTC price metric also suggested the same comeback.
Bitcoin Heater, launched by the quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, can also be back within the green.
The metric measures “the relative heat in Bitcoin perpetuals, futures and options, weighted by open interest,” Capriole explained, and is currently at 0.09, the bottom level since November 2022.
“We have some big headwinds to cope with (like institutional selling), but I can't be pessimistic as Heater is in deep green today + fundamental value across the board,” commented creator Charles Edwards in a post on X-Tuesday.
“I think it would be higher for a minimum of the subsequent week.” 
Edwards also uploaded a chart of Bitcoin's dynamic network value-to-transaction ratio (NVT), which now shows it’s “oversold” relative to the worth of on-chain transactions.
Meow??? How high can the cat jump? pic.twitter.com/oOrvncOLlH
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 25, 2025
As Cointelegraph continues to report, various market participants remain unconvinced that the bull market can return.
Among them is long-time trader Peter Brandt, who likened BTC/USD's recovery from the $80,500 low to a so-called “dead cat bounce” as a part of a broader downtrend.
This article doesn’t contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their very own research when making their decision.
