According to analysts at crypto market evaluation platform CryptoQuant, demand growth for Bitcoin (BTC) has slowed significantly since October 2025, suggesting that Bitcoin has entered one other bear market cycle.
Investor demand for BTC got here in three waves in the present market cycle, with the primary wave arriving in January 2024, in response to analysts at CryptoQuant.
The first wave followed the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the US, the second wave followed the outcomes of the 2024 US presidential election, and the third was a BTC treasury bubble. According to CryptoQuant:
“Since early October 2025, demand growth has fallen below trend, indicating that the vast majority of this cycle’s incremental demand has already been realized and a key pillar of price support is falling away.” Apparent demand for Bitcoin fell within the fourth quarter of 2025. Source: CryptoQuant
Institutional demand has also declined, with the overall amount of Bitcoin held in ETFs falling by about 24,000 BTC within the fourth quarter of 2025, a “strong contrast” to the buildup behavior within the fourth quarter of 2024, in response to CryptoQuant.
Funding rates, or the fees paid by perpetual futures traders to keep up their positions, have also fallen to their lowest level since December 2023, one other signal that BTC has entered a bear market.
The final reason analysts cited was the bearish outlook because Bitcoin's price structure fell below the 365-day moving average, which is a critical and dynamic support level for any asset.
Bitcoin continues to trade well below its 365-day moving average of around $98,172. Source: TradingView
While some analysts proceed to hope for a greater 2026, there may be fear available in the market
Some analysts proceed to predict higher BTC prices in 2026, driven by increased demand and lower rates of interest. Falling rates of interest are positive catalysts for crypto prices and other dangerous assets.
However, in response to CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index, the general crypto market sentiment stays firmly within the “fear” zone.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group's FedWatch tool, only 22.1% of investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to chop rates of interest at its next meeting in January.
Interest rate goal probabilities for the January 2026 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
US President Donald Trump tried to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to chop rates of interest in 2025 by threatening to fireside Powell.
Powell's term is about to run out in May 2026 and Trump is weighing potential successors who’re expected to chop rates.
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