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Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi says so Bitcoin price development repeats the cycle patterns of 2022, but only in reverse order. The USA back then Federal Reserve (FED) Interest rate hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash in BTC price. As the Fed now prepares to finish quantitative tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the identical macroeconomic setup could push prices in the wrong way, potentially marking the beginning of Bitcoin's next big rally.
Bitcoin price follows the 2022 cycle pattern in reverse direction
Chifoi explained on X Social Media on November 2nd that Bitcoin's behavior appears to be repeating 2022 macroeconomic environment vice versa. Back in March 2022, he noted that Bitcoin price was near $46,000 when the Fed announced its first aggressive rate hikes. When the Federal Reserve implemented its first two rate of interest hikes of fifty and 75 basis points in June of that 12 months, BTC has collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical low point of this cycle.
When the FED continued to extend rates of interest from a complete of 175 to 550 basis points, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi announced that Bitcoin had made its entrance accumulation phase and commenced rising despite other market experts calling the central bank's actions “irresponsible” and delayed.
Today, Chifoi believes the cycle is now reversing. Recently with the Fed Announcement of the tip of quantitative tightening By December, he predicts the subsequent three-month window could trigger a powerful uptrend that would Driving Bitcoin to the highest fairly than a floor.
He points to late December to January 20, 2026 because the crucial period to look at, suggesting that the crypto market could get well strongly before entering a cooling phase as liquidity fully returns.
Liquidity peaks and repo signals support this thesis
Backs up his evaluation, Chifoi referred a post from one other analyst called “ChurchOfTheCycle” who shared an informative FRED chart showing a rise Overnight Repo Agreements—Treasury bonds temporarily purchased by the Fed through open market operations.
The chart, which covers the period from 2000 to 2025, highlights a sudden and significant increase in repo activity, suggesting possible injections of liquidity into the economic system. The analyst noted that this increase alone shouldn’t be a guarantee Market crashas such increases have typically provided a short-term boost for stocks and cryptocurrencies up to now.
Source: FRED
He also noted that the Fed's recent actions indicate stress within the economic system Early phase of liquidity supportwhich could drive up speculative assets.
Source: X
Based on this, the analyst predicts that the market still could enter a parabolic phase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before a significant crash in 2026, about 6-12 months after his post on November 2nd. As a precautionary measure, he warns traders to watch credit spreads, repo activity levels and VIX correlation for early signs of tightening liquidity.
BTC falls below $108,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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