According to on-chain data cited by analyst Steph Is Crypto, nearly 48% of XRP holders are currently in an unrealized loss position, marking a level of underwater profitability that reflects conditions ahead of the most important XRP rally in late 2024.
48% of XRP supply is below cost base. Notable differences from the last rally
Source: X
Using data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the analyst said that currently only about 52% of the circulating supply of XRP – about 60.57 billion tokens – is generating profits, while the remainder is being purchased above the present price. The profitability share has been steadily declining in recent weeks because the broader crypto markets weaken.
“We are actually back to profitability rates last seen in November 2024,” the analyst said, referring to data that showed similar metrics ahead of a historic uptrend in that period.
48% of XRP supply is below cost base
Ownership share of profits is a very important metric since it often influences investor psychology. If a significant slice of holders are underwater, some analysts argue that selling pressure may increase as investors develop into more sensitive to downside risks.
Analysts noted that gains fell to around 45% in November 2024 while XRP traded near $0.50. Shortly thereafter, a market rally coincided with broader macroeconomic changes and the rally following the US election cycle, increasing profitability to almost 100% because the XRP price climbed to almost $3. This historical pattern has caused some traders to pay closer attention to current profitability metrics.
However, the analyst warned that the events driving the recovery in 2024 – including broad macroeconomic optimism and political aspects related to regulatory expectations – may not repeat themselves in the identical time-frame or under the identical conditions.
XRP spent much of recent trading below the $2 mark, struggling to reclaim that level, while the broader crypto market downturn weighed on risk assets across the board. At press time, the token was changing hands at around $1.86, continuing its muted performance in comparison with the beginning of the yr.
XRP/USD every day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
The decline in profitability coincides with lower open futures interest in XRP and lower funding rates, suggesting derivatives traders have develop into more cautious. Lower sentiment and weakened risk appetite have added pressure to near-term price movements.
Notable differences from the last rally
In late 2024, when XRP's profitability ratio was last near similar lows, a confluence of several aspects contributed to a rapid recovery – including an expected regulatory change and broader market rotation. Analysts then linked XRP's recovery to speculative positioning ahead of perceived legal clarity and macroeconomic changes, which critics on the time dismissed as overly optimistic.
The subsequent rally that took XRP to almost $3.65 in July 2025 is commonly cited by long-term investors as a classic example of a deep trough in profitability followed by outsized gains.
While today's profitability profile could also be much like the top of 2024, the market environment has modified. The uptrend in 2024 was largely supported by political aspects – particularly the post-election recovery following the US presidential election, an event that many traders saw as favorable for crypto regulation.
Today this catalyst is missing. Instead, investors are focused on regulatory advances, equivalent to ongoing developments surrounding the proposed CLARITY Act, and growing interest in XRP exchange-traded funds – each of which market participants hope could eventually result in broader adoption.
