Ether (ETH) struggled to keep up prices above $2,000 on Tuesday, and with that in mind, analysts noted that Ether's 31% decline in 2026 matches a well-known price fractal from previous bull markets.
Key Takeaways:
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ETH’s recent decline to $1,736 may mark just the primary of many lows in a bigger period of consolidation.
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The on-chain cost data is between $1,300 and $2,000, highlighting this area as a possible demand zone.
The ETH fractal suggests an extended period of base constructing
An extended-term fractal comparison between the 2021-2022 and 2024-2025 cycles suggests that Ether's sharp sell-off reflects a pattern where a bottom initially forms before the worth returns to lower levels as a consequence of further market weakness.
On the weekly chart, ETH’s decline into the $1,730 area looks more like its “first bottom” than a definitive market floor.
Ether fractal evaluation on the weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
In 2021, ETH spent 12 months consolidating across the first low ($1,730) and a lower support band ($885), allowing leverage to reset and demand to rebuild.
Using this framework, ETH could proceed to trade in a variety of around $1,300-$2,000, with downside tests possible towards the $1,500-$1,600 zone before a sustainable base is formed.
On-chain cost basis data cites $1,300 to $2,000 because the demand zone
UTXO data on Ether’s realized price distribution (URPD) highlights the opportunities for prolonged consolidation. Major supply clusters remain above current prices, with $2,822 representing 5.86% of ETH supply and $3,119 accounting for six.15%, forming strong overhead resistance.
Below current spot prices, notable clusters appear at $1,881 (1.58 million ETH) and $1,237, indicating potential demand zones if the worth continues to say no.
Ether UTXO URPD distribution. Source: Glassnode
Structurally, $1,237 stands out as a possible cycle floor, followed by interim support at $1,584 and stronger acceptance at $1,881 where realized supply concentration increases.
Derivatives data is consistent with this view. The liquidation heatmap shows cumulative long liquidations with $4 billion to $6 billion in danger, starting from $1,700 to $1,455. These are values that sellers should still strive for.
However, greater than $12 billion in brief liquidity has collected as much as $3,000, meaning the directional bias could shift higher in the approaching months once downside liquidity is absorbed.
Ether chart evaluation for per week. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
What gives Ether structural support?
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Ether withdrawals from exchanges rose to their highest level since October 2025, with net outflows exceeding 220,000 ETH. Binance recorded each day net outflows of about 158,000 ETH on Thursday, the most important since August 2025.
These flows coincided with ETH trading from $1,800 to $2,000, suggesting accumulation or risk-off repositioning at these levels.
MNCapital founder Michaël van de Poppe highlighted the same dynamic, noting that price often lags behind network and narrative growth.
Stablecoin transaction volume on Ethereum is up about 200% over the past 18 months, at the same time as ETH price stays about 30% lower, a divergence that may lead to a parabolic revaluation for the altcoin.
ETH stablecoin transactions. Source: X
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