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Dealers remain careful about ETH's price campaign, but an optimistic mood begins to return.
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The Ethereum PECTRA upgrade on May 7 could strengthen the mood of investors, but ETH's price campaign shows that investors are still hesitation of opening recent positions.
Ether (Eth) has been under $ 1,900 since March and led investors whether the failed try and regain 4,000 US dollars in December 2024 signaled the top of an ERA for the leading old coin. As a result, the market data of the derivatives show that skilled dealers are careful before ETH's prospects for prices.
ETH monthly futures should act in comparison with the spot markets with a bonus of 5% or more to compensate for the longer settlement time. However, this indicator held below the neutral threshold.
Ether 3 months Futures Annualized Premium. Source: laevitas.ch
Part of the dearth of enthusiasm relies on the frustration with the United States government, since Ether was classified on March 6, along with other old coins within the “Digital Asset Stockpile” arrangement. The Trump administration decided that only Bitcoin (BTC) was significant enough to be included in its own “strategic reserve”. In practical terms, old coins could already be kept by the federal government, but couldn’t be acquired again.
The market capitalization of ether falls among the many 4 best competitors
For the primary time, in April 2025, the market capitalization of ether fell under the combined value of its 4 largest competitors: Solana (Sol), BNB, Cardano (ADA) and Tron (TRX).
After the back rash of lows near 1,400 US dollars, Ether's overall market capitalization is now $ 217 billion, which is sufficient to surpass the combined value of its 4 predominant competitors. If Ether doesn’t consistently exceed these competitors, it’s unlikely that the mood will improve. Some dealers have high hopes for the upcoming “Pectra” network -upgrade, but current derivative data don’t reflect a bullish view.
The decline of ether can also be with the weak demand for the Ethereum Spot Exchange Fund (ETF) within the United States. Institutional interest was missing, although ETH's price rose from $ 2,400 to $ 4,000 between October and December 2024. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs recorded the assets greater than twice and currently grew from $ 50 billion to 110 billion US dollars in October 2024.
Ethereum results in TVL, but there may be a catch
Although Ethereum stays dominated with regard to the entire value (TVL), it has endeavored to fulfill the integrated user experience of Solana or the dominance of Tron within the StableCoin sector. Dealers don’t appear to be higher decentralization or improved security, especially for activities that contain frequent insoles and withdrawals during which solutions for shift-2 only offer limited benefits.
The lack of demand for Leveraged Bullish ETH positions doesn’t necessarily mean that skilled dealers expect further price declines. If whales and market manufacturers weren’t willing to supply down protection, this might be reflected within the ETH option markets, which signals an increased risk of a market upset.
In contrast to some expectations, PUT options (selling) options are traded at similar levels akin to call options (purchase) options. In particular, skilled dealers at the moment are more comfortable with downward risks than two weeks ago. While ETH derivatives don’t signal a robust bullish mood, in addition they don’t suggest that skilled dealers get further declines to the present price level.
It is feasible that the upcoming “Pectra” network -upgrade can positively influence the value of ethher. This event is planned for May seventh and will extend the investor's interest within the project by closing the gap with a few of its competitors. The deposit mechanisms designed for institutional investors may lead to more ETH being locked in Validator nodes, which reduces the circulating supply. Historically, Ethereum -upgrades were often related to short spikes within the ETH price.
This article serves general information purposes and shouldn’t be thought to be legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions which are expressed listed below are solely that of the writer and don’t necessarily reflect the views and opinions of cointelegraph or don’t necessarily represent them.
