Ethereum has entered a zone typically related to mass selling, with an MVRV Z-Score yielding a worth of -0.42 – although analysts are divided on whether Ether's price is near bottoming out.
The MVRV Z-Score is a metric used to evaluate whether a crypto asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market value to its realized value, which reflects the full value of Ether based on the value at which it was last traded.
The metric was designed to discover periods of market euphoria or capitulation where the market value was significantly higher or lower than the realized value.
Joao Wedson, an analyst at CryptoQuant and Alphractal founder and CEO, said the outcomes “show that Ethereum is indeed undergoing a transparent capitulation process.”
However, the analyst said the information “doesn’t compare” to the intensity seen at the foremost bottoms of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
The lowest reading in history was -0.76, recorded in December 2018, Wedson said.
The Ether MVRV Z-Score falls below zero in capitulation. Source: Alpharactal
Further disadvantages for ETH prices possible
The analyst warned that further downside was possible before a meaningful recovery.
“The market is already under stress, but historically there remains to be room for further downside before a final structural bottom forms,” he said.
The price of Ether has fallen 30% over the past two weeks, hitting a bear market low of $1,825 on Friday before recovering barely to $2,100 on Monday.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told Cointelegraph that Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score has historically “proven to be a highly reliable indicator for tracking subsequent market changes, particularly in identifying bottom zones over multiple cycles.”
“Judging by on-chain activity, protocol development and long-term ecosystem structure, Ethereum's fundamentals haven’t deteriorated significantly. On the contrary, they proceed to enhance in several key dimensions,” he said.
However, it’s premature to conclude that Ether has bottomed so long as the principal drivers of the present decline remain, he added.
“Given the potential liquidity constraints related to the upcoming tax season in April, the likelihood of further price declines stays a major factor.”
One of one of the best “buy fear” windows for Ether
Other market commentators, like MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe, were just a little more optimistic, saying: “I believe it is a huge opportunity to try ETH.”
“The principal reason for that is that there’s a massive 'fair price' gap,” he said, referring to the MVRV ratio.
Ether is currently as undervalued because it was through the April 2025 crash, the June 2022 bottom following the Terra/Luna collapse, the March 2020 Covid crash, and the December 2018 bear market bottom.
“In all of those cases, this presented an incredible buying opportunity for that individual asset.”
Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at crypto trading platform Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that negative MVRV zones “have repeatedly preceded explosive recoveries in past cycles.”
“As ETH’s network metrics remain stable, it seems like a premium long-term accumulation setup once the weak hands are fully flushed,” he said.
“Brutal capitulation, but historically among the best ‘buy fear’ windows for ETH.” 
ETH prices have fallen back to long-term cycle lows. Source: TradingViewCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's editorial guidelines and goals to offer accurate and up-to-date information. Readers are advised to independently confirm the knowledge. Read our editorial policies https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
