According to a convergence of bullish indicators, XRP (XRP) could rally toward $5 or higher by March.
XRP Bounce Doubles Bull Flag Establishment
On January 14, XRP formed a bull flag pattern on its longer-term charts.
A bull flag setup occurs when price consolidates inside a parallel channel after a big sideways or downward rally. In technical evaluation, such a setup unravels when the worth breaks the channel's upper trendline and rises by the peak of the previous uptrend.
XRP rallied around 25% after testing the flag's lower trendline as support, increasing the possibilities of an increase towards upper trendline resistance near $3.35-3.50. Sustained upward momentum from there, if accompanied by higher volumes, could take the worth towards the bull flag goal at around $4.90-5.00 as shown below.
Three-day XRP/USDT price chart. Source: TradingView
Conversely, XRP could face bearish pressure near its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) at around $2.28. This will likely end in a retest of the flag's lower trendline support, which if broken to the downside will invalidate the general bullish outlook.
The behavior of XRP HODLers suggests renewed accumulation
HODLer Net Position Change data from Glassnode suggests that long-term XRP holders are moving back to accumulation in late 2025 after a protracted distribution phase.
XRP Hodler Net Position Change vs Price Chart. Source: Glassnode
During this era, negative readings suggested that holders were reducing their exposure as the worth moved sideways. More recently, the metric has turned positive, suggesting that long-term investors are adding to their positions again.
In the past, such transitions have tended to follow correction or consolidation phases and infrequently marked the return of conviction somewhat than market exhaustion. In the case of XRP, the renewed accumulation is accompanied by a price rally from the lower boundary of its broader bull flag structure. If this trend continues as XRP tests resistance near $3.35-$3.50, it could support a breakout towards the measured goal of $4.90-$5.00.
A return to sustainable distribution would weaken this optimistic outlook.
XRP NUPL shows rising profits but no euphoria
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric shows that holders are sitting on growing unrealized profits, however the market has not yet entered an overheated phase.
XRP NUPL vs price chart. Source: Glassnode
The indicator has moved into the “belief denial” zone, a regime that typically follows a robust trend reversal and reflects growing belief amongst profitable holders.
Historically, this phase supports trend continuation as selling pressure stays muted during pullbacks. Importantly, XRP’s NUPL stays below the “euphoria-greed” zone, suggesting there remains to be upside potential before sentiment is exhausted. A sustained rise in NUPL together with price would reinforce the prospect of a bullish breakout, while a robust rollover could indicate early profit-taking risks.
