Bitcoin (BTC) could recapture $100,000 as support and rally towards $107,000 in the approaching days, driven by a mixture of supportive technical and fundamental metrics.
Key insights:
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Bitcoin's breakout is gaining momentum, supported by bullish technicals and easing selling pressure.
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The macroeconomic signals signal a slight uptrend with liquidity expansion and divergence between BTC and gold.
Ascending triangle and bull cross increase BTC rally possibilities
Bitcoin confirmed its breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle earlier this week and entered a textbook post-breakout retest phase.
After breaking the pattern's upper boundary at around $95,000, BTC retraced to retest previous resistance as support before bouncing higher, a move normally related to valid breakouts quite than false moves.
Holding this reclaimed level keeps the “true breakout” structure intact and preserves the pattern’s measured upside goal at $107,000, which comes from adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point through February.
BTC/USD each day chart. Source: TradingView
At the identical time, Bitcoin's each day chart was approaching a possible bullish crossover between the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMAs).
The last time BTC recorded an analogous bull cross, BTC price rose by around 17% in the next month, strengthening the case for a continuation of the trend if the signal is confirmed.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are reducing sales
Bitcoin's breakout gained credibility as selling pressure from long-term holders continued to subside.
Data tracking UTXOs issued by OG Bitcoin holders, coins which were inactive for greater than five years, showed that distribution had slowed significantly in recent local spikes.
In January, the 90-day average issued peaked at nearly 2,300 BTC early within the cycle, but later fell towards the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins are entering the market.
STXO from OG Bitcoin holders (>5 years). Source: CryptoQuant
At the beginning of the rally, OG selling had risen to levels well above the previous bull market, reflecting an unusually attractive exit window created by spot ETF demand, higher liquidity and institutional participation.
“This suggests that OGs have also slowed their sales,” said analyst DarkFrost, adding:
“Their sometimes massive selling pressure has significantly diminished and the prevailing trend now appears to be more towards holding than selling.”
The slowdown in OG sales also coincided with the most important net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
BTC net transfer volume from/to exchanges. Source: Glassnode
Negative Bitcoin-Gold Correlation: Bullish for BTC?
Another macro signal consistent with the breakout thesis comes from Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold.
In previous cases where BTC's correlation with gold turned negative, Bitcoin rose a median of 56% in about two months. The only exception in May 2021 was attributable to exogenous shocks, including China's mining crackdown and compelled deleveraging.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
From 2026 onwards, the constellation gave the impression to be more favorable, supported by increasing global liquidity and the top of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening.
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