Bitcoin market research warned that BTC will face one other bear market in 2026 if it fails to recuperate its annual moving average.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls risk a reality check as BTC price motion mimics the 2022 “bear market rally.”
Key points:
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Bitcoin “appears” to be at the beginning of one other bear market as the value stays below its annual moving average.
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The recent rally makes it much more vital to beat the trend line at $101,000.
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Stock market inflows show sellers are getting out upfront this week.
Bitcoin bear risk stays below $101,000
New research from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warns that 2026 can be much like Bitcoin's previous bear market 12 months.
“Bitcoin is up 21% since November 21, in what looks like a 'bear market rally,'” it wrote in its latest weekly report published on Friday.
Bitcoin can have risen greater than 20% since its low of $80,500 in November 2025, but that is just not enough to ensure a long-lasting recovery. According to CryptoQuant, the explanation lies within the 365-day moving average.
“Bitcoin's price fell 19% because it confirmed the beginning of a bear market after breaking below its 365-day moving average (MA). It has since risen 19% to as high as $97.9K and is approaching its 365-day MA, which is $101K,” it added.
“An analogous scenario played out in 2022 when the previous bear market played out. Bitcoin price fell 27% after breaking below its 365-day MA, only to rise 47% and be rejected at its 365-day MA.” BTC/USDT one-day chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The results add more significance to the $101,000 area, which already has several resistance hurdles.
As Cointelegraph reported, bear market comparisons to 2022 have gained popularity in recent weeks and months, with predictions including a decline toward $65,000 in 2026.
BTC inflows on the exchange are increasing
CryptoQuant due to this fact suggested not relying an excessive amount of on short-term BTC price strength.
“At the time, many market participants believed that the bear market was over, that the four-year cycle was invalid and that a supercycle was imminent – a sentiment not unlike today,” it continued, referring to 2022.
“However, fundamental and technical indicators still suggest we remain in a bear market.” 
BTC/USD comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows price motion trending similarly to 4 years ago, with 2022 and 2026 diverging from the previous bear market in 2018.
In an indication of what awaits the bulls, the study also found that forex inflows are hitting multi-month highs on a weekly basis.
“Total Bitcoin inflows to exchanges increased to a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC today, the biggest inflow volume since November 25, 2025. Higher exchange inflows may indicate impending increasing selling pressure,” CryptoQuant concluded.
Bitcoin exchange inflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
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