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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could hit latest records if monetary conditions within the US ease next 12 months. He pointed to several possible triggers for a pointy increase in dollar liquidity in 2026 and likewise linked recent market moves to capital flows in 2025.
Hayes links Bitcoin to dollar liquidity
According to Hayes, the important thing to Bitcoin is the amount of cash sloshing through the system. He cited expanding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet through what he called more aggressive money creation, falling mortgage rates as lenders eased, and increasing lending to industries by industrial banks supported by the federal government strategy.
Bitcoin fell 15% in 2025 while gold rose 44%. Technology stocks led the S&P 500 with a complete return of 25%, while the S&P had a complete return of 18%. These numbers, Hayes argued, showed that the last 12 months was about where liquidity ended up, not about crypto losing its fundamental utility.
Government support brings technology to the highest
Hayes also highlighted how governments have shifted capital to specific technology projects. He suggested that each China and the US used executive actions and public funds to pour money into artificial intelligence work, saying this had helped tech firms attract large inflows, whatever the immediate return on equity.
He named US President Donald Trump when pointing to policy moves that favor AI investments. That dynamic, he said, helps explain why the Nasdaq performed strongly despite Bitcoin's plunge.
Bitcoin (red), Gold (gold), Nasdaq 100 (green) and Dollar Liquidity (magenta). Source: Arthur Hayes.
Politics and military spending are necessary
He added a stronger claim about military spending. Hayes said the U.S. would proceed to make use of its military might and that such efforts would require large-scale production financed through the banking system.
In his view, this will contribute to broader liquidity if the banking sector starts financing large government-backed projects. Hayes reportedly believes these forces could drive dollar liquidity higher in 2026 and create fertile ground for risk assets – including Bitcoin.
BTCUSD is currently trading at $96,719. Chart: TradingView
Inflation data has pushed crypto higher this week
Markets reacted as the most recent US inflation numbers got here in weaker than expected. Bitcoin neared $97,000, rising greater than 5% in 24 hours. Ethereum, Solana and Cardano each posted gains of just about 8% over the identical period.
Bond yields fell and the dollar weakened, sending money searching for a brand new home. This pattern is well-known: weaker inflation tends to lower borrowing costs and increase investors' risk appetite.
A bull case with conditions
Based on Hayes' logic, Bitcoin's uptrend will depend on the continued devaluation of fiat money. He portrays Bitcoin as a monetary technology whose value increases when fiat is weakened. This view is coherent but conditional. If central banks go for restrictive monetary policy or if inflation rises and forces a policy change, Hayes' scenario may not materialize. For now, his forecast is a liquidity story – one which shall be tested by political decisions in 2026.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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